相关论文: Robust bounds on risk-sensitive functionals via Re…

A robust estimator is proposed for the parameters that characterize the linear regression problem. It is based on the notion of shrinkages, often used in Finance and previously studied for outlier detection in multivariate data. A thorough…

In the presence of model risk, it is well-established to replace classical expected values by worst-case expectations over all models within a fixed radius from a given reference model. This is the "robustness" approach. We show that…

In real-world decision-making problems, for instance in the fields of finance, robotics or autonomous driving, keeping uncertainty under control is as important as maximizing expected returns. Risk aversion has been addressed in the…

The robustness of risk measures to changes in underlying loss distributions (distributional uncertainty) is of crucial importance in making well-informed decisions. In this paper, we quantify, for the class of distortion risk measures with…

We introduce a novel framework to account for sensitivity to rewards uncertainty in sequential decision-making problems. While risk-sensitive formulations for Markov decision processes studied so far focus on the distribution of the…

Using the framework of factor models, we establish the general expression of the coefficient of tail dependence between the market and a stock (i.e., the probability that the stock incurs a large loss, assuming that the market has also…

In this paper we revisited the classical problem of max-sum equivalence of randomly weighted sums in two dimensions. In opposite to the most papers in literature, we consider that there exists some interdependence between the primary random…

The asymptotic tail behaviour of sums of independent subexponential random variables is well understood, one of the main characteristics being the principle of the single big jump. We study the case of dependent subexponential random…

We consider a family of multivariate distributions with heavy-tailed margins and the type I elliptical dependence structure. This class of risks is common in finance, insurance, environmental and biostatistic applications. We obtain the…

This paper presents a novel theoretical study of the general problem of multiple source adaptation using the notion of Renyi divergence. Our results build on our previous work [12], but significantly broaden the scope of that work in…

This paper examines robust functional data analysis for discretely observed data, where the underlying process encompasses various distributions, such as heavy tail, skewness, or contaminations. We propose a unified robust concept of…

Under general multivariate regular variation conditions, the extreme Value-at-Risk of a portfolio can be expressed as an integral of a known kernel with respect to a generally unknown spectral measure supported on the unit simplex. The…

We study risk-sensitive reinforcement learning (RL) based on an entropic risk measure in episodic non-stationary Markov decision processes (MDPs). Both the reward functions and the state transition kernels are unknown and allowed to vary…

This thesis evaluates most of the extreme mixture models and methods that have appended in the literature and implements them in the context of finance and insurance. The paper also reviews and studies extreme value theory, time series,…

Expected risk minimization (ERM) is at the core of many machine learning systems. This means that the risk inherent in a loss distribution is summarized using a single number - its average. In this paper, we propose a general approach to…

We study large deviation probabilities for a sum of dependent random variables from a heavy-tailed factor model, assuming that the components are regularly varying. We identify conditions where both the factor and the idiosyncratic terms…

We present a reinforcement learning (RL) approach for robust optimisation of risk-aware performance criteria. To allow agents to express a wide variety of risk-reward profiles, we assess the value of a policy using rank dependent expected…

Dependence among multiple lifetimes is a key factor for pricing and evaluating the risk of joint life insurance products. The dependence structure can be exposed to model uncertainty when available data and information are limited. We…

Many financial and economic variables, including financial returns, exhibit nonlinear dependence, heterogeneity and heavy-tailedness. These properties may make problematic the analysis of (non-)efficiency and volatility clustering in…

Entropy is a measure of self-information which is used to quantify losses. Entropy was developed in thermodynamics, but is also used to compare probabilities based on their deviating information content. Corresponding model uncertainty is…