相关论文: Global estimation of child mortality using a Bayes…

Predicting the evolution of mortality rates plays a central role for life insurance and pension funds.Various stochastic frameworks have been developed to model mortality patterns taking into account the main stylized facts driving these…

Many people living in low- and middle-income countries are not covered by civil registration and vital statistics systems. Consequently, a wide variety of other types of data, including many household sample surveys, are used to estimate…

Disease mapping analyses the distribution of several disease outcomes within a territory. Primary goals include identifying areas with unexpected changes in mortality rates, studying the relation among multiple diseases, and dividing the…

A widely-used model for determining the long-term health impacts of public health interventions, often called a "multistate lifetable", requires estimates of incidence, case fatality, and sometimes also remission rates, for multiple…

In computational mechanics, multiple models are often present to describe a physical system. While Bayesian model selection is a helpful tool to compare these models using measurement data, it requires the computationally expensive…

Mortality rates are often disaggregated by different attributes, such as sex, state, education, religion or ethnicity. Forecasting mortality rates at the national and sub-national levels plays an important role in making social policies…

When modeling sub-national mortality rates, it is important to incorporate any possible correlation among sub-populations to improve forecast accuracy. Moreover, forecasts at the sub-national level should aggregate consistently across the…

Bayesian multidimensional scaling (BMDS) is a probabilistic dimension reduction tool that allows one to model and visualize data consisting of dissimilarities between pairs of objects. Although BMDS has proven useful within, e.g., Bayesian…

Despite their widespread use in practice, the asymptotic properties of Bayesian penalized splines have not been investigated so far. We close this gap and study posterior concentration rates for Bayesian penalized splines in a Gaussian…

We provide forecasts for mortality rates by using two different approaches. First we employ dynamic non-linear logistic models based on Heligman-Pollard formula. Second, we assume that the dynamics of the mortality rates can be modelled…

Age-specific mortality improvements are non-uniform, neither across ages nor across time. We propose a two-step procedure to estimate the rates of mortality improvement (RMI) in age-specific death rates (ASDR) at ages 85 and above for ten…

We briefly communicate results of a nonparametric and robust evaluation of effects of \emph{the Fourth Millennium Development Goal of United Nations}. Main aim of the goal was reducing by two thirds, between 1990--2015, the under five…

The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) is the single largest and most detailed scientific effort ever conducted to quantify levels and trends in health. This global health model to estimate mortality rates and…

The two-phase sampling design is a cost-effective strategy widely used in public health research. Analyzing the Phase II sample often involves creating subsample-specific weights. However, these weights can be highly variable, leading to…

We present an estimation procedure for nonlinear mixed-effects models in which the population trajectory is represented by penalized splines and adapted to individuals via subject-specific transformation parameters. By exploiting the mixed…

Multivariate regression models for age estimation are a powerful tool for assessing abnormal brain morphology associated to neuropathology. Age prediction models are built on cohorts of healthy subjects and are built to reflect normal aging…

This paper describes a method for a model-based analysis of clinical safety data called multivariate Bayesian logistic regression (MBLR). Parallel logistic regression models are fit to a set of medically related issues, or response…

Mortality is different across countries, states and regions. Several empirical research works however reveal that mortality trends exhibit a common pattern and show similar structures across populations. The key element in analyzing…

We propose a new approach to mixed-frequency regressions in a high-dimensional environment that resorts to Group Lasso penalization and Bayesian techniques for estimation and inference. In particular, to improve the prediction properties of…

Accurate estimates of subnational health and demographic indicators are critical for informing health policy decisions. Many countries collect relevant data using complex household surveys, but when data are limited, direct survey weighted…