相关论文: Outbreak Patterns of the Novel Avian Influenza (H7…

In March and early April 2013, a new avian-origin influenza A (H7N9) virus (A-OIV) emerged in the eastern China. During the first week of April, the 18 infection cases have been confirmed and 6 people have died since March. This virus has…

We study the global spatio-temporal patterns of influenza dynamics. This is achieved by analysing and modelling weekly laboratory confirmed cases of influenza A and B from 138 countries between January 2006 and May 2014. The data were…

Background: The pandemic of influenza A (H1N1) is a serious on-going global public crisis. Understanding its spreading dynamics is of fundamental importance for both public health and scientific researches. Recent studies have focused…

Avian Influenza Virus (AIV) poses significant threats to the poultry industry, humans, domestic animals, and wildlife health worldwide. Monitoring this infectious disease is important for rapid and effective response to potential outbreaks.…

In this paper, the authors develop a method of detecting correlations between epidemic patterns in different regions that are due to human movement and introduce a null model in which the travel-induced correlations are cancelled. They…

Estimating population-level prevalence and transmission dynamics of wildlife pathogens can be challenging, partly because surveillance data is sparse, detection-driven, and unevenly sequenced. Using highly pathogenic avian influenza A/H5…

Infectious diseases usually originate from a specific location within a city. Due to the heterogenous distribution of population and public facilities, and the structural heterogeneity of human mobility network embedded in space, infectious…

Daily variation in human mobility modulates the speed and severity of emerging outbreaks, yet most epidemiological studies assume static contact patterns. With a highly mobile population exceeding 24 million people, Shanghai, China is a…

A model based on a thermodynamic approach is proposed for predicting the dynamics of communicable epidemics in a city, when the epidemic is governed by controlling efforts of multiple scales so that an entropy is associated with the system.…

Avian Influenza breakouts cause millions of dollars in damage each year globally, especially in Asian countries such as China and South Korea. The impact magnitude of a breakout directly correlates to time required to fully understand the…

Confirmed cases during the early stage of the 2009 H1N1 pdm in various countries showed an age shift between importations and local transmission cases, with adults mainly responsible for seeding unaffected regions and children most…

The emerging threat of a human pandemic caused by the H5N1 avian influenza virus strain magnifies the need for controlling the incidence of H5N1 infection in domestic bird populations. Culling is one of the most widely used control measures…

We present an analysis of an avian flu model that yields insight into the role of different transmission routes in the recurrence of avian influenza epidemics. Recent modelling work on avian influenza in wild bird populations takes into…

Since the 21st century, the global outbreaks of infectious diseases such as SARS in 2003, H1N1 in 2009, and H7N9 in 2013, have become the critical threat to the public health and a hunting nightmare to the government. Understanding the…

H5N1 highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) has been recently circulating in previously unseen patterns. As the underlying causes are uncertain, we need a better understanding of the drivers of virus circulation, as they underpin the…

In December 2019, a novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) has been identified to cause acute respiratory disease in humans. An outbreak of this disease has been reported in mainland China with the city of Wuhan as the recognized epicenter. The…

Influenza epidemics result in a public health and economic burden around the globe. Traditional surveillance techniques, which rely on doctor visits, provide data with a delay of 1-2 weeks. A means of obtaining real-time data and…

Most antigenically novel and evolutionarily successful strains of seasonal influenza A (H3N2) originate in East, South, and Southeast Asia. To understand this pattern, we simulated the ecological and evolutionary dynamics of influenza in a…

Public health surveillance systems often fail to detect emerging infectious diseases, particularly in resource limited settings. By integrating relevant clinical and internet-source data, we can close critical gaps in coverage and…

On 11 June the World Health Organization officially raised the phase of pandemic alert (with regard to the new H1N1 influenza strain) to level 6. We use a global structured metapopulation model integrating mobility and transportation data…