相关论文: Statistical mechanics of the US Supreme Court
If we have a system of binary variables and we measure the pairwise correlations among these variables, then the least structured or maximum entropy model for their joint distribution is an Ising model with pairwise interactions among the…
Financial markets are a classical example of complex systems as they comprise many interacting stocks. As such, we can obtain a surprisingly good description of their structure by making the rough simplification of binary daily returns.…
The US Supreme Court throughout the 20th century has been characterized as being divided between liberals and conservatives, suggesting that justices with similar ideologies would have voted similarly had they overlapped in tenure. What if…
Starting from preferences on N proposed policies obtained via questionnaires from a sample of the electorate, an Ising spin-glass model in a field can be constructed from which a political party could find the subset of the proposed…
In modern democracies, the outcome of elections and referendums is often remarkably tight. The repetition of these divisive events are the hallmark of a split society; to the physicist, however, it is an astonishing feat for such large…
We build models for the distribution of social states in Twitter communities. States can be defined by the participation vs silence of individuals in conversations that surround key words, and we approximate the joint distribution of these…
Ising models with pairwise interactions are the least structured, or maximum-entropy, probability distributions that exactly reproduce measured pairwise correlations between spins. Here we use this equivalence to construct Ising models that…
Ising models with pairwise interactions are the least structured, or maximum-entropy, probability distributions that exactly reproduce measured pairwise correlations between spins. Here we use this equivalence to construct Ising models that…
In physics we often use very simple models to describe systems with many degrees of freedom, but it is not clear why or how this success can be transferred to the more complex biological context. We consider models for the joint…
Decision procedures aggregating the preferences of multiple agents can produce cycles and hence outcomes which have been described heuristically as `chaotic'. We make this description precise by constructing an explicit dynamical system…
The reconstruction of interaction networks between random events is a critical problem arising from statistical physics and politics, sociology, biology, psychology, and beyond. The Ising model lays the foundation for this reconstruction…
Financial markets are a typical example of complex systems where interactions between constituents lead to many remarkable features. Here, we show that a pairwise maximum entropy model (or auto-logistic model) is able to describe switches…
In this work we study spin-glass (SG) like behavior in the dynamics of multiple agents in a social or economic context using interactions which are similar to the physical case. The different preferences shown by individual agents are…
Human populations exhibit complex behaviors---characterized by long-range correlations and surges in activity---across a range of social, political, and technological contexts. Yet it remains unclear where these collective behaviors come…
This paper studies an integrated system of political and economic systems from a systematic perspective to explore the complex interaction between them, and specially analyzes the case of the US presidential election forecasting. Based on…
Successful attempts to predict judges' votes shed light into how legal decisions are made and, ultimately, into the behavior and evolution of the judiciary. Here, we investigate to what extent it is possible to make predictions of a…
We study a model for a statistical network formed by interactions between its nodes and links. Each node can be in one of two states (Ising spin up or down) and the node-link interaction facilitates linking between the like nodes. For high…
We propose a stochastic map model of economic dynamics. In the last decade, an array of observations in economics has been investigated in the econophysics literature, a major example being the universal features of inequality in terms of…
We designed a model-based analysis to predict the occurrence of population patterns in distributed spiking activity. Using a maximum entropy principle with a Markovian assumption, we obtain a model that accounts for both spatial and…
This article starts by introducing a new theoretical framework to model spatial systems which is obtained from the framework of interacting particle systems by replacing the traditional graphical structure that defines the network of…