相关论文: Failure of Calibration is Typical

A formal write-up of the simple proof (1995) of the existence of calibrated forecasts by the minimax theorem, which moreover shows that $N^3$ periods suffice to guarantee a calibration error of at most $1/N$.

Calibration is a well-studied property of predictors which guarantees meaningful uncertainty estimates. Multicalibration is a related notion -- originating in algorithmic fairness -- which requires predictors to be simultaneously calibrated…

Within the last few years, there has been a move towards using statistical models in conjunction with neural networks with the end goal of being able to better answer the question, "what do our models know?". From this trend, classical…

Modern machine learning models with high accuracy are often miscalibrated -- the predicted top probability does not reflect the actual accuracy, and tends to be over-confident. It is commonly believed that such over-confidence is mainly due…

We consider the task of forecasting an infinite sequence of future observations based on some number of past observations, where the probability measure generating the observations is "suspected" to satisfy one or more of a set of…

Bayesian statistics has gained popularity in psychological research due to its intuitive uncertainty quantification and convenient information-updating rules. In many applications, however, prior distributions are introduced merely as…

Seasonal forecasting is a crucial task when it comes to detecting the extreme heat and colds that occur due to climate change. Confidence in the predictions should be reliable since a small increase in the temperatures in a year has a big…

We analyse the calibration of BayesCG under the Krylov prior, a probabilistic numeric extension of the Conjugate Gradient (CG) method for solving systems of linear equations with symmetric positive definite coefficient matrix. Calibration…

Field experiments are often difficult and expensive to make. To bypass these issues, industrial companies have developed computational codes. These codes intend to be representative of the physical system, but come with a certain amount of…

Fueled by discussions around "trustworthiness" and algorithmic fairness, calibration of predictive systems has regained scholars attention. The vanilla definition and understanding of calibration is, simply put, on all days on which the…

Numerical simulations are widely used to predict the behavior of physical systems, with Bayesian approaches being particularly well suited for this purpose. However, experimental observations are necessary to calibrate certain simulator…

We initiate the study of the truthfulness of calibration measures in sequential prediction. A calibration measure is said to be truthful if the forecaster (approximately) minimizes the expected penalty by predicting the conditional…

The classic concept of "calibrated forecasts" and its more recent refinement, "calibeating," are defined with respect to the standard quadratic scoring rule. We extend these notions to the class of $\textit{proper}$ scoring rules (for which…

Calibration ensures that probabilistic forecasts meaningfully capture uncertainty by requiring that predicted probabilities align with empirical frequencies. However, many existing calibration methods are specialized for post-hoc…

Neural networks solving real-world problems are often required not only to make accurate predictions but also to provide a confidence level in the forecast. The calibration of a model indicates how close the estimated confidence is to the…

Prediction markets are increasingly used as probability forecasting tools, yet their usefulness depends on calibration, specifically whether a contract trading at 70 cents truly implies a 70% probability. Using 292 million trades across…

Safety-critical prediction systems, such as autonomous vehicles, weather forecasters, and medical monitors, commonly rely on probabilistic forecasters. These forecasters make predictions about possible future outcomes, and their quality and…

Calibration measures quantify how much a forecaster's predictions violates calibration, which requires that forecasts are unbiased conditioning on the forecasted probabilities. Two important desiderata for a calibration measure are its…

Calibration is a pivotal aspect in predictive modeling, as it ensures that the predictions closely correspond with what we observe empirically. The contemporary calibration framework, however, is predominantly focused on prediction models…

In typical machine learning systems, an estimate of the probability of the prediction is used to assess the system's confidence in the prediction. This confidence measure is usually uncalibrated; i.e.\ the system's confidence in the…