相关论文: Failure of Calibration is Typical

In a sequential regression setting, a decision-maker may be primarily concerned with whether the future observation will increase or decrease compared to the current one, rather than the actual value of the future observation. In this…

In order to identify expertise, forecasters should not be tested by their calibration score, which can always be made arbitrarily small, but rather by their Brier score. The Brier score is the sum of the calibration score and the refinement…

Accurate estimation of predictive uncertainty (model calibration) is essential for the safe application of neural networks. Many instances of miscalibration in modern neural networks have been reported, suggesting a trend that newer, more…

Accurate probabilistic predictions can be characterized by two properties -- calibration and sharpness. However, standard maximum likelihood training yields models that are poorly calibrated and thus inaccurate -- a 90% confidence interval…

In this work, we review the theory involved in the Bayesian calibration of complex computer models, with particular emphasis on their use for applications involving computationally expensive simulations and scarce experimental data. In the…

Probabilistic classifiers output a probability distribution on target classes rather than just a class prediction. Besides providing a clear separation of prediction and decision making, the main advantage of probabilistic models is their…

Calibration requires predictor outputs to be consistent with their Bayesian posteriors. For machine learning predictors that do not distinguish between small perturbations, calibration errors are continuous in predictions, e.g., smooth…

Probability forecasting is common in the geosciences, the finance sector, and elsewhere. It is sometimes the case that one has multiple probability-forecasts for the same target. How is the information in these multiple forecast systems…

Predictors map individual instances in a population to the interval $[0,1]$. For a collection $\mathcal C$ of subsets of a population, a predictor is multi-calibrated with respect to $\mathcal C$ if it is simultaneously calibrated on each…

Uncertainty in probabilistic classifiers predictions is a key concern when models are used to support human decision making, in broader probabilistic pipelines or when sensitive automatic decisions have to be taken. Studies have shown that…

Most supervised machine learning tasks are subject to irreducible prediction errors. Probabilistic predictive models address this limitation by providing probability distributions that represent a belief over plausible targets, rather than…

The machine learning community has become increasingly concerned with the potential for bias and discrimination in predictive models. This has motivated a growing line of work on what it means for a classification procedure to be "fair." In…

What does it mean to say that, for example, the probability for rain tomorrow is between 20% and 30%? The theory for the evaluation of precise probabilistic forecasts is well-developed and is grounded in the key concepts of proper scoring…

Calibration has emerged as a foundational goal in ``trustworthy machine learning'', in part because of its strong decision theoretic semantics. Independent of the underlying distribution, and independent of the decision maker's utility…

In many applications, accurate class probability estimates are required, but many types of models produce poor quality probability estimates despite achieving acceptable classification accuracy. Even though probability calibration has been…

Systematically biased forecasts are typically interpreted as evidence of forecasters' irrationality and/or asymmetric loss. In this paper we propose an alternative explanation: when forecasts inform policy decisions, and the resulting…

This note proves a weak type of the sharpness principle as conjectured by Gneiting, Balabdaoui, and Raftery in 2007 in connection with probabilistic forecasting subject to calibration constraints. A strong version of such a principle still…

The calibration of predictive distributions has been widely studied in deep learning, but the same cannot be said about the more specific epistemic uncertainty as produced by Deep Ensembles, Bayesian Deep Networks, or Evidential Deep…

In safety-critical applications a probabilistic model is usually required to be calibrated, i.e., to capture the uncertainty of its predictions accurately. In multi-class classification, calibration of the most confident predictions only is…

With model trustworthiness being crucial for sensitive real-world applications, practitioners are putting more and more focus on improving the uncertainty calibration of deep neural networks. Calibration errors are designed to quantify the…