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In this paper, a Bayesian approach is developed for simultaneously comparing multiple experimental treatments with a common control treatment in an exploratory clinical trial. The sample size is set to ensure that, at the end of the study,…

统计理论 · 数学 2019-11-14 John Whitehead , Faye Cleary , Amanda Turner

We extend Fisher's randomization test (FRT) to test conditional independence between observed outcomes and treatments given covariates in both randomized experiments and observational studies, with no restriction on the variable type of…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2025-06-12 Zhen Zhong

A standard assumption in the Bayesian estimation of linear regression models is that the regressors are exogenous in the sense that they are uncorrelated with the model error term. In practice, however, this assumption can be invalid. In…

计量经济学 · 经济学 2026-03-10 Siddhartha Chib , Minchul Shin , Anna Simoni

Estimating the causal effect of an exposure on an outcome is an important task in many economical and biological studies. Mendelian randomization, in particular, uses genetic variants as instruments to estimate causal effects in…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2017-06-06 Sai Li

Conventional methods in causal effect inferencetypically rely on specifying a valid set of control variables. When this set is unknown or misspecified, inferences will be erroneous. We propose a method for inferring average causal effects…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2021-06-14 Ludvig Hult , Dave Zachariah

Mediation analysis with contemporaneously observed multiple mediators is an important area of causal inference. Recent approaches for multiple mediators are often based on parametric models and thus may suffer from model misspecification.…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2022-08-30 Samrat Roy , Michael J. Daniels , Brendan J. Kelly , Jason Roy

Estimating causal effects from observational data is inherently challenging due to the lack of observable counterfactual outcomes and even the presence of unmeasured confounding. Traditional methods often rely on restrictive, untestable…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2025-04-07 Li Chen , Xiaotong Shen , Wei Pan

The proximal causal inference framework enables the identification and estimation of causal effects in the presence of unmeasured confounding by leveraging two disjoint sets of observed strong proxies: negative control treatments and…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2025-12-16 Antonio Olivas-Martinez , Peter B. Gilbert , Andrea Rotnitzky

Observational studies are a key resource for causal inference but are often affected by systematic biases. Prior work has focused mainly on detecting these biases, via sensitivity analyses and comparisons with randomized controlled trials,…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2025-06-03 Ilker Demirel , Zeshan Hussain , Piersilvio De Bartolomeis , David Sontag

Bipartite experiments arise in various fields, in which the treatments are randomized over one set of units, while the outcomes are measured over another separate set of units. However, existing methods often rely on strong model…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2025-04-16 Sizhu Lu , Lei Shi , Yue Fang , Wenxin Zhang , Peng Ding

Causal inference methods for observational data are increasingly recognized as a valuable complement to randomized clinical trials (RCTs). They can, under strong assumptions, emulate RCTs or help refine their focus. Our approach to causal…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2024-08-14 Carlo Berzuini , Davide Luciani , Hiren C. Patel

In this paper we describe a framework for model-based diagnosis of dynamic systems, which extends previous work in this field by using and expressing temporal uncertainty in the form of qualitative interval relations a la Allen. Based on a…

人工智能 · 计算机科学 2013-02-28 Wolfgang Nejdl , Johann Gamper

No man is an island, as individuals interact and influence one another daily in our society. When social influence takes place in experiments on a population of interconnected individuals, the treatment on a unit may affect the outcomes of…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2017-08-30 Edward K. Kao

Causal inference, especially in observational studies, relies on untestable assumptions about the true data-generating process. Sensitivity analysis helps us determine how robust our conclusions are when we alter these underlying…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2026-05-11 Nikita Dhawan , Daniel Shen , Leonardo Cotta , Chris J. Maddison

Though the notion of exchangeability has been discussed in the causal inference literature under various guises, it has rarely taken its original meaning as a symmetry property of probability distributions. As this property is a standard…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2023-10-04 Olli Saarela , David A. Stephens , Erica E. M. Moodie

We provide theoretical and empirical evidence for a type of asymmetry between causes and effects that is present when these are related via linear models contaminated with additive non-Gaussian noise. Assuming that the causes and the…

An informative sampling design leads to the selection of units whose inclusion probabilities are correlated with the response variable of interest. Model inference performed on the resulting observed sample will be biased for the population…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2018-06-29 Matthew R. Williams , Terrance D. Savitsky

Establishing causal relations between random variables from observational data is perhaps the most important challenge in today's \blue{science}. In remote sensing and geosciences this is of special relevance to better understand the…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2020-12-10 Adrián Pérez-Suay , Gustau Camps-Valls

This article presents the results of the research carried out on the development of a medical diagnostic system applied to the Acute Bacterial Meningitis, using the Case Based Reasoning methodology. The research was focused on the…

人工智能 · 计算机科学 2010-04-28 Mariana Maceiras Cabrera , Ernesto Ocampo Edye

Predicting undesirable events during the execution of a business process instance provides the process participants with an opportunity to intervene and keep the process aligned with its goals. Few approaches for tackling this challenge…

人工智能 · 计算机科学 2020-09-22 Jens Brunk , Matthias Stierle , Leon Papke , Kate Revoredo , Martin Matzner , Jörg Becker
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