相关论文: Checkpointing strategies with prediction windows

We consider reinforcement learning in changing Markov Decision Processes where both the state-transition probabilities and the reward functions may vary over time. For this problem setting, we propose an algorithm using a sliding window…

Considering the close interaction between spare parts logistics and maintenance planning, this paper presents a model for joint optimization of multi-location spare parts supply chain and condition-based maintenance under predictive and…

Predictive maintenance (PdM) has become a crucial element of modern industrial practice. PdM plays a significant role in operational dependability and cost management by decreasing unforeseen downtime and optimizing asset life cycle…

Time series forecasting plays an increasingly important role in modern business decisions. In today's data-rich environment, people often aim to choose the optimal forecasting model for their data. However, identifying the optimal model…

This paper introduces a novel meta-learning algorithm for time series forecast model performance prediction. We model the forecast error as a function of time series features calculated from the historical time series with an efficient…

Fraud detection is a difficult problem that can benefit from predictive modeling. However, the verification of a prediction is challenging; for a single insurance policy, the model only provides a prediction score. We present a case study…

In this work we introduce an alternative model for the design and analysis of strategyproof mechanisms that is motivated by the recent surge of work in "learning-augmented algorithms". Aiming to complement the traditional approach in…

Current navigation systems conflate time-to-drive with the true time-to-arrive by ignoring parking search duration and the final walking leg. Such underestimation can significantly affect user experience, mode choice, congestion, and…

Machine learning models can assign fixed predictions that preclude individuals from changing their outcome. Existing approaches to audit fixed predictions do so on a pointwise basis, which requires access to an existing dataset of…

While conventional power system protection isolates faulty components only after a fault has occurred, fault prediction approaches try to detect faults before they can cause significant damage. Although initial studies have demonstrated…

This paper looks at predictability problems, i.e., wherein an agent must choose its strategy in order to optimize the predictions that an external observer could make. We address these problems while taking into account uncertainties on the…

Load forecasting plays a critical role in the operation and planning of power systems. By using input features such as historical loads and weather forecasts, system operators and utilities build forecast models to guide decision making in…

Timed automata are a convenient mathematical model for modelling and reasoning about real-time systems. While they provide a powerful way of representing timing aspects of such systems, timed automata assume arbitrary precision and…

Accurately predicting future behaviors of surrounding vehicles is an essential capability for autonomous vehicles in order to plan safe and feasible trajectories. The behaviors of others, however, are full of uncertainties. Both rational…

Real-world recommendation systems often consist of two phases. In the first phase, multiple predictive models produce the probability of different immediate user actions. In the second phase, these predictions are aggregated according to a…

Load forecasting has long been recognized as an important building block for all utility operational planning efforts. Over the recent years, it has become ever more challenging to make accurate forecasts due to the proliferation of…

Understanding prediction errors and determining how to fix them is critical to building effective predictive systems. In this paper, we delineate four types of prediction errors and demonstrate that these four types characterize all…

In this paper we build a case for providing job completion time predictions to cloud users, similar to the delivery date of a package or arrival time of a booked ride. Our analysis reveals that providing predictability can come at the…

The paper studies the problem of detecting and locating change points in multivariate time-evolving data. The problem has a long history in statistics and signal processing and various algorithms have been developed primarily for simple…

Accurately estimating workload runtime is a longstanding goal in computer systems, and plays a key role in efficient resource provisioning, latency minimization, and various other system management tasks. Runtime prediction is particularly…