相关论文: Calculating effective gun policies

Among industrialized countries, U.S. holds two somehow inglorious records: the highest rate of fatal police shootings and the highest rate of deaths related to firearms. The latter has been associated with strong diffusion of firearms…

Gun violence is a critical public health and safety concern in the United States. There is considerable variability in policy proposals meant to curb gun violence, ranging from increasing gun availability to deter potential assailants…

In the United States, firearm-related deaths and injuries are a major public health issue. Because of limited federal action, state policies are particularly important, and their evaluation informs the actions of other policymakers. The…

The United States have some of the highest rates of gun violence among developed countries. Yet, there is a disagreement about the extent to which firearms should be regulated. In this study, we employ social media signals to examine the…

In the United States the laws regulating the carrying of firearms in public vary state-to-state. In a highly publicized event, the Governor of New Mexico recently issued an emergency order temporarily banning the carrying of firearms in…

We propose a simple mathematical model to describe the evolution of violent crimes. For such purpose, we built a model based on ordinary differential equations that take into account the number of violent crimes and the number of legal and…

The number of active shooter incidents in the US has been increasing alarmingly. It is imperative for the government as well as the public to understand these events. Though both analytic and agent-based models have been proposed for…

The number of deaths from car accidents and from the unlawful use of guns can be described by logistic growth curves. The annual rates of both have traced completed logistic trajectories following which they have been self-regulated for…

We believe that "all men are created equal". With the rise of the police shootings reported by media, more people in the U.S. think that police use excessive force during law enforcement, especially to a specific group of people. We want to…

The scientific method drives improvements in public health, but a strategy of obstructionism has impeded scientists from gathering even a minimal amount of information to address America's gun violence epidemic. We argue that in spite of a…

The United States leads the world in the number of mass shootings that occur each year, even as policy making on firearms remains polarized along party lines. In the face of increasing violence and public demand for policy action, we ask…

Vaccination policies play a central role in public health interventions and models are often used to assess the effectiveness of these policies. Many vaccines are leaky, in which case the observed vaccine effectiveness depends on the force…

Autoregressive models are widely used for the analysis of time-series data, but they remain underutilized when estimating effects of interventions. This is in part due to endogeneity of the lagged outcome with any intervention of interest,…

Fatal police shootings in the United States continue to be a polarizing social and political issue. Clear disagreement between racial proportions of victims and nationwide racial demographics together with graphic video footage has created…

The death toll for Covid-19 may be reduced by dividing the population into two classes, the vulnerable and the fit, with different lockdown regimes. Instead of one reproduction number there now are four parameters. These make it possible to…

Suicides cause over 49000 deaths yearly in the United States, 55% involving firearms. Suicide mortality exhibits substantial geographical and sociodemographic heterogeneity; yet the role of social networks remains underexplored. To assess…

This paper combines a canonical epidemiology model of disease dynamics with government policy of lockdown and testing, and agents' decision to social distance in order to avoid getting infected. The model is calibrated with data on deaths…

Potential advancements in artificial intelligence (AI) could have profound implications for how countries research and develop weapons systems, and how militaries deploy those systems on the battlefield. The idea of AI-enabled military…

In this paper, we proposed a novel automated model, called Vulnerability Index for Population at Risk (VIPAR) scores, to identify rare populations for their future shooting victimizations. Likewise, the focused deterrence approach…

How should we evaluate the effect of a policy on the likelihood of an undesirable event, such as conflict? The significance test has three limitations. First, relying on statistical significance misses the fact that uncertainty is a…