相关论文: Predicting economic growth with classical physics …

We have explored the temporal variability of the seismicity at global scale over the last 124 years, as well as its potential drivers. To achieve this, we constructed and analyzed an averaged global seismicity curve for earthquakes of…

We extend the exploration regarding dynamical approach of macroeconomic variables by tackling systematically expenditure using Statistical Physics models (for the first time to the best of our knowledge). Also, using polynomial distribution…

We analyze a fixed panel of S\&P 500 stocks from 1996 to 2026 using complementary static and kinetic Ising models applied to daily binary open-to-close movements. The static pairwise model provides a long-run maximum-entropy summary of…

In evolutionary game dynamics, reproductive success increases with the performance in an evolutionary game. If strategy $A$ performs better than strategy $B$, strategy $A$ will spread in the population. Under stochastic dynamics, a single…

We test the international applicability of Friedman s famous plucking theory of the business cycle in 12 advanced economies between 1970 and 2021. We find that in countries where labour markets are flexible (Australia, Canada, United…

This paper presents the proportional evolutionary time hypothesis, which posits that the mean time required for the evolution of complex life is a function of stellar mass. The "biological available window" is defined as the region of a…

This paper describes a general approach for stochastic modeling of assets returns and liability cash-flows of a typical pensions insurer. On the asset side, we model the investment returns on equities and various classes of fixed-income…

This paper introduces the Index of Future Readiness (IFR), a novel framework for assessing a country's capacity to withstand, adapt to, and prosper within an environment of continuous and accelerating change. The framework builds on the…

We study macroeconomic fluctuations in the United Kingdom over seven centuries (1271--2022) using a time-varying VAR with stochastic volatility. We identify business cycle shocks as innovations explaining the largest share of future output…

In this paper we study a model of age-structured ecological populations in continuous interaction with a community of harvesters. We propose an individual-based model for this feedback interactions and prove its convergence to a system of…

Epochal dynamics, in which long periods of stasis in population fitness are punctuated by sudden innovations, is a common behavior in both natural and artificial evolutionary processes. We use a recent quantitative mathematical analysis of…

Real-world examples of periods of periodical organisms range from cicadas whose life-cycles are larger prime numbers, like 13 or 17, to bamboos whose periods are large multiples of small primes, like 40 or even 120. The periodicity is…

Cooperation is central to the success of human societies as it is crucial for overcoming some of the most pressing social challenges of our time. Yet how human cooperation is achieved and may persist is still a main puzzle in the social and…

The urban transition, the increased ratio of urban to rural population globally and within countries, is a hallmark of the 21st century. Our analysis of publicly available data from the World Bank spanning several decades for ~195 countries…

We examine the feasibility of predicting and subsequently managing the future evolution of a Complex Adaptive System. Our archetypal system mimics a competitive population of mechanical, biological, informational or human objects. We show…

A microscopic approach to macroeconomic features is intended. A model for macroeconomic behavior based on the Ausloos-Clippe-Pekalski model is built and investigated. The influence of a discrete time information transfer is investigated.…

Comprehensive models of stochastic, clonally reproducing populations are defined in terms of general branching processes, allowing birth during maternal life, as for higher organisms, or by splitting, as in cell division. The populations…

Ergodicity economics is a new branch of economic theory that notes the conceptual difference between time averages and expectation values, which coincide only for ergodic observables. It postulates that individual agents maximise the time…

The accumulation of knowledge required to produce economic value is a process that often relates to nations economic growth. Such a relationship, however, is misleading when the proxy of such accumulation is the average years of education.…

This paper establishes a quantitative and structural framework for civilizational continuity under rapid, non-linear ecological transitions. Utilizing empirical data on Earth's Energy Imbalance (EEI), currently measured at 1.36 W/m^2, we…