相关论文: Mixture Gaussian Process Conditional Heteroscedast…

We apply Gaussian process (GP) regression, which provides a powerful non-parametric probabilistic method of relating inputs to outputs, to survival data consisting of time-to-event and covariate measurements. In this context, the covariates…

The accurate prediction of time-changing variances is an important task in the modeling of financial data. Standard econometric models are often limited as they assume rigid functional relationships for the variances. Moreover, function…

Accurate forecasting of the Volatility-Covariance Matrix (VCV) is central to regulatory capital adequacy processes such as the Internal Capital Adequacy Assessment Process (ICAAP) and the Comprehensive Capital Analysis and Review (CCAR).…

In this paper, we propose the realized Hyperbolic GARCH model for the joint-dynamics of lowfrequency returns and realized measures that generalizes the realized GARCH model of Hansen et al.(2012) as well as the FLoGARCH model introduced by…

Volatility, as a measure of uncertainty, plays a crucial role in numerous financial activities such as risk management. The Econometrics and Machine Learning communities have developed two distinct approaches for financial volatility…

Recently nonparametric functional model with functional responses has been proposed within the functional reproducing kernel Hilbert spaces (fRKHS) framework. Motivated by its superior performance and also its limitations, we propose a…

We develop an automated variational method for inference in models with Gaussian process (GP) priors and general likelihoods. The method supports multiple outputs and multiple latent functions and does not require detailed knowledge of the…

This paper develops and estimates a multivariate affine GARCH(1,1) model with Normal Inverse Gaussian innovations that captures time-varying volatility, heavy tails, and dynamic correlation across asset returns. We generalize the…

Gaussian Processes (GPs) have been widely used in machine learning to model distributions over functions, with applications including multi-modal regression, time-series prediction, and few-shot learning. GPs are particularly useful in the…

In extracting time series data from various sources, it is inevitable to compile variables measured at varying frequencies as this is often dependent on the source. Modeling from these data can be facilitated by aggregating high frequency…

This paper presents a new approach to a robust Gaussian process (GP) regression. Most existing approaches replace an outlier-prone Gaussian likelihood with a non-Gaussian likelihood induced from a heavy tail distribution, such as the…

Obtaining reliable estimates of conditional covariance matrices is an important task of heteroskedastic multivariate time series. In portfolio optimization and financial risk management, it is crucial to provide measures of uncertainty and…

This study addresses the computational challenges of forecasting volatility in high-dimensional commodity markets. Building on the Network log-ARCH framework, we introduce a novel class of network topologies from GARCH-informed correlation…

In this paper, we introduce flexible observation-driven $\mathbb{Z}$-valued time series models constructed from mixtures of negative and non-negative components. Compared to models based on the standard Skellam distribution or on a…

Multivariate GARCH models are important tools to describe the dynamics of multivariate times series of financial returns. Nevertheless, these models have been much less used in practice due to the lack of reliable software. This paper…

This paper introduces an integer-valued generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (INGARCH) model based on the novel geometric distribution and discusses some of its properties. The parameter estimation problem of the models…

In this paper, we introduce a new jump process modeling which involves a particular kind of non-Gaussian stochastic processes with random jumps at random time points. The main goal of this study is to provide an accurate tracking technique…

The Value-at-Risk (VaR) is a widely used instrument in financial risk management. The question of estimating the VaR of loss return distributions at extreme levels is an important question in financial applications, both from operational…

We define a copula process which describes the dependencies between arbitrarily many random variables independently of their marginal distributions. As an example, we develop a stochastic volatility model, Gaussian Copula Process Volatility…

In this work we introduce a mixture of GPs to address the data association problem, i.e. to label a group of observations according to the sources that generated them. Unlike several previously proposed GP mixtures, the novel mixture has…