相关论文: Mixture Gaussian Process Conditional Heteroscedast…

Gaussian process is a theoretically appealing model for nonparametric analysis, but its computational cumbersomeness hinders its use in large scale and the existing reduced-rank solutions are usually heuristic. In this work, we propose a…

A new type of nonstationary Gaussian process model is developed for approximating computationally expensive functions. The new model is a composite of two Gaussian processes, where the first one captures the smooth global trend and the…

Within the past two decades, Gaussian process regression has been increasingly used for modeling dynamical systems due to some beneficial properties such as the bias variance trade-off and the strong connection to Bayesian mathematics. As…

Stochastic processes are a flexible and widely used family of models for statistical modeling. While stochastic processes offer attractive properties such as inclusion of uncertainty properties, their inference is typically intractable,…

Despite the success of Gaussian process based Model Predictive Control (MPC) in robotic control, its applicability scope is greatly hindered by multimodal disturbances that are prevalent in real-world settings. Here we propose a novel…

We propose a flexible Bayesian approach for sparse Gaussian graphical modeling of multivariate time series. We account for temporal correlation in the data by assuming that observations are characterized by an underlying and unobserved…

Covariate measurement error in nonparametric regression is a common problem in nutritional epidemiology and geostatistics, and other fields. Over the last two decades, this problem has received substantial attention in the frequentist…

We study the Gaussian Process regression model in the context of training data with noise in both input and output. The presence of two sources of noise makes the task of learning accurate predictive models extremely challenging. However,…

Accurate probabilistic prediction of wind power is crucial for maintaining grid stability and facilitating the efficient integration of renewable energy sources. Gaussian process (GP) models offer a principled framework for quantifying…

In this paper, we propose a novel Gaussian process-based moving horizon estimation (MHE) framework for unknown nonlinear systems. On the one hand, we approximate the system dynamics by the posterior means of the learned Gaussian processes…

This paper uses simulation-based portfolio optimization to mitigate the left tail risk of the portfolio. The contribution is twofold. (i) We propose the Markov regime-switching GARCH model with multivariate normal tempered stable innovation…

Many machine learning problems can be framed in the context of estimating functions, and often these are time-dependent functions that are estimated in real-time as observations arrive. Gaussian processes (GPs) are an attractive choice for…

The stochastic volatility model is a popular tool for modeling the volatility of assets. The model is a nonlinear and non-Gaussian state space model, and consequently is difficult to fit. Many approaches, both classical and Bayesian, have…

We propose a Bayesian nonparametric model based on Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods for the joint reconstruction and prediction of discrete time stochastic dynamical systems, based on $m$-multiple time-series data, perturbed by…

Models for financial risk often assume that underlying asset returns are stationary. However, there is strong evidence that multivariate financial time series entail changes not only in their within-series dependence structure, but also in…

Correlation between microstructure noise and latent financial logarithmic returns is an empirically relevant phenomenon with sound theoretical justification. With few notable exceptions, all integrated variance estimators proposed in the…

HYGARCH model is basically used to model long-range dependence in volatility. We propose Markov switch smooth-transition HYGARCH model, where the volatility in each state is a time-dependent convex combination of GARCH and FIGARCH. This…

A key challenge with controlling complex dynamical systems is to accurately model them. However, this requirement is very hard to satisfy in practice. Data-driven approaches such as Gaussian processes (GPs) have proved quite effective by…

In this paper, we explore the application of Gaussian Processes (GPs) for predicting mean-reverting time series with an underlying structure, using relatively unexplored functional and augmented data structures. While many conventional…

The combination of inducing point methods with stochastic variational inference has enabled approximate Gaussian Process (GP) inference on large datasets. Unfortunately, the resulting predictive distributions often exhibit substantially…