相关论文: Graph-Coupled HMMs for Modeling the Spread of Infe…

In this paper, we present a simple method to integrate risk-contact data, obtained via digital contact monitoring (DCM) apps, in conventional compartmental transmission models. During the recent COVID-19 pandemic, many such data have been…

The recently proposed generalized epidemic modeling framework (GEMF) \cite{sahneh2013generalized} lays the groundwork for systematically constructing a broad spectrum of stochastic spreading processes over complex networks. This article…

Whole genome sequencing of pathogens from multiple hosts in an epidemic offers the potential to investigate who infected whom with unparalleled resolution, potentially yielding important insights into disease dynamics and the impact of…

Among various spatio-temporal prediction tasks, epidemic forecasting plays a critical role in public health management. Recent studies have demonstrated the strong potential of spatio-temporal graph neural networks (STGNNs) in extracting…

Infectious disease remains, despite centuries of work to control and mitigate its effects, a major problem facing humanity. This paper reviews the mathematical modelling of infectious disease epidemics on networks, starting from the…

The spread of one disease, in some cases, can stimulate the spreading of another infectious disease. Here, we treat analytically a symmetric coinfection model for spreading of two diseases on a two-layer multiplex network. We allow layer…

We propose a copula-based extension of the hidden Markov model (HMM) which applies when the observations recorded at each time in the sample are multivariate. The joint model produced by the copula extension allows decoding of the hidden…

We propose a new model, the Neighbor Mixture Model (NMM), for modeling node labels in a graph. This model aims to capture correlations between the labels of nodes in a local neighborhood. We carefully design the model so it could be an…

Epidemiologic studies of infectious diseases often rely on models of contact networks to capture the complex interactions that govern disease spread, and ongoing projects aim to vastly increase the scale at which such data can be collected.…

Hidden Markov model (HMM) has been successfully used for sequential data modeling problems. In this work, we propose to power the modeling capacity of HMM by bringing in neural network based generative models. The proposed model is termed…

To better predict the dynamics of epidemics such as COVID-19, it is important not only to investigate the network of local and long-range contagious contacts but also to understand the temporal dynamics of infectiousness and detectable…

The literature on Gaussian graphical models (GGMs) contains two equally rich and equally significant domains of research efforts and interests. The first research domain relates to the problem of graph determination. That is, the underlying…

This study is concerned with the dynamical behaviors of epidemic spreading over a two-layered interconnected network. Three models in different levels are proposed to describe cooperative spreading processes over the interconnected network,…

This work is concerned with epidemiological models defined on networks, which highlight the prominent role of the social contact network of a given population in the spread of infectious diseases. In particular, we address the modelling and…

Progressive diseases worsen over time and are characterised by monotonic change in features that track disease progression. Here we connect ideas from two formerly separate methodologies -- event-based and hidden Markov modelling -- to…

For rapidly spreading diseases where many cases show no symptoms, swift and effective contact tracing is essential. While exposure notification applications provide alerts on potential exposures, a fully automated system is needed to track…

Infected individuals in some epidemics can remain asymptomatic while still carrying and transmitting the infection. These individuals contribute to the spread of the epidemic and pose a significant challenge to public health policies.…

Epidemiological processes are studied within a recently proposed hierarchical network model using the susceptible-infected-refractory dynamics of an epidemic. Within the network model, a population may be characterized by $H$ independent…

Spreading phenomena are ubiquitous in nature and society. For example, disease, rumor, and information spread over underlying social and information networks. It is well known that there is no threshold for epidemic models on scale-free…

Mathematical modeling is one of the key factors of the effective control of newly found infectious diseases, such as COVID-19. Our knowledge about the parameters and the course of the infection is highly limited in the beginning of the…