相关论文: Hybrid Forecasting of Exchange Rate by Using Chaos…

We propose a hybrid forecast model based on discrete grey-fuzzy Markov and grey neural network model and show that our hybrid model can improve much more the performance of forecast than traditional grey-Markov model and neural network…

We propose a hybrid forecast based on extended discrete grey Markov and variable dimension Kalman model and show that our hybrid model can improve much more the performance of forecast than traditional grey Markov and Kalman models. Our…

This paper proposes an enhanced approach to modeling and forecasting volatility using high frequency data. Using a forecasting model based on Realized GARCH with multiple time-frequency decomposed realized volatility measures, we study the…

Wind speed modelling and prediction has been gaining importance because of its significant roles in various stages of wind energy management. In this paper, we propose a hybrid model, based on wavelet transform to improve the accuracy of…

In todays global economy, accuracy in predicting macro-economic parameters such as the foreign the exchange rate or at least estimating the trend correctly is of key importance for any future investment. In recent times, the use of…

Selecting an appropriate statistical model to forecast exchange rates is still today a relevant issue for policymakers and central bankers. The so-called Meese and Rogoff puzzle assesses that exchange rate fluctuations are unpredictable. In…

This paper introduces an extension of the Markov switching GARCH model where the volatility in each state is a convex combination of two different GARCH components with time varying weights. This model has the dynamic behavior to capture…

In this paper we develop a Bayesian procedure for estimating multivariate stochastic volatility (MSV) using state space models. A multiplicative model based on inverted Wishart and multivariate singular beta distributions is proposed for…

Traffic forecasting is crucial for urban traffic management and guidance. However, existing methods rarely exploit the time-frequency properties of traffic speed observations, and often neglect the propagation of traffic flows from upstream…

The 2006 sudden and immense downturn in U.S. House Prices sparked the 2007 global financial crisis and revived the interest about forecasting such imminent threats for economic stability. In this paper we propose a novel hybrid forecasting…

A time-varying cointegration model for foreign exchange rates is presented. Unlike previous studies, we allow the loading matrix in the vector error correction (VEC) model to be varying over time. Because the loading matrix in the VEC model…

This paper introduces a unique and valuable research design aimed at analyzing Bitcoin price volatility. To achieve this, a range of models from the Markov Switching-GARCH and Stochastic Autoregressive Volatility (SARV) model classes are…

Financial Times Series such as stock price and exchange rates are, often, non-linear and non-stationary. Use of decomposition models has been found to improve the accuracy of predictive models. The paper proposes a hybrid approach…

In this paper we aim to improve existing empirical exchange rate models by accounting for uncertainty with respect to the underlying structural representation. Within a flexible Bayesian non-linear time series framework, our modeling…

Foreign Exchange (Forex) is the largest financial market in the world. The daily trading volume of the Forex market is much higher than that of stock and futures markets. Therefore, it is of great significance for investors to establish a…

Accurate prediction of financial market volatility is critical for risk management, derivatives pricing, and investment strategy. In this study, we propose a multitude of regime-switching methods to improve the prediction of S&P 500…

In this paper, a short-term load forecasting approach based network reconfiguration is proposed in a parallel manner. Specifically, a support vector regression (SVR) based short-term load forecasting approach is designed to provide an…

This paper introduces an innovative realized volatility (RV) forecasting framework that extends the conventional Heterogeneous autoregressive (HAR) model via integrating Graph Signal Processing (GSP). The study first evaluates various…

To comply with increasingly stringent international standards in risk management and regulation, several approaches have been developed in the literature for forecasting tail-risk measures such as Value-at-Risk (VaR) and Expected Shortfall…

SVR-GARCH model tends to "backward eavesdrop" when forecasting the financial time series volatility in which case it tends to simply produce the prediction by deviating the previous volatility. Though the SVR-GARCH model has achieved good…