相关论文: Bayesian inference for orbital eccentricities

In Bayesian statistics, the highest posterior density (HPD) interval is often used to describe properties of a posterior distribution. As a method for estimating confidence intervals (CIs), the HPD has two main desirable properties.…

Standard maximum-likelihood estimators for binary-star and exoplanet eccentricities are biased high, in the sense that the estimated eccentricity tends to be larger than the true eccentricity. As with most non-trivial observables, a simple…

Extreme mass ratio inspirals (EMRIs) provide unique probes of near-horizon dissipation through the tidal heating. We present a full Bayesian analysis of tidal heating in equatorial eccentric EMRIs by performing injection-recovery studies…

We develop a Bayesian highest-density interval (HDI) for use in within-subject designs. This credible interval is based on a standard noninformative prior and a modified posterior distribution that conditions on both the data and point…

We use equations of motion containing gravitational radiation-reaction terms through 4.5 post-Newtonian order to calculate the late-time eccentricities of inspiraling binary systems of non-spinning compact bodies as they cross the detection…

Abstract abridged. Eclipsing binary systems provide the opportunity to measure the fundamental parameters of their component stars in a stellar-model-independent way. This makes them ideal candidates for testing and calibrating theories of…

We describe and study an instantaneous definition of eccentricity to be applied at the initial moment of full numerical simulations of binary black holes. The method consists of evaluating the eccentricity at the moment of maximum…

We propose a new approach to Bayesian prior probability distributions (priors) that can improve orbital solutions for low-phase-coverage orbits, where data cover less than approximately 40% of an orbit. In instances of low phase coverage…

In solving Bayesian inverse problems, it is often desirable to use a common density parameterization to denote the prior and posterior. Typically we seek a density from the same family as the prior which closely approximates the true…

The orbital inclination of an eclipsing binary is generally determined through light curve analysis. Binary parameters in the light curve analysis are typically constrained through the use of optimization and sampling techniques. We propose…

Simulation of quasicircular compact binaries is a major goal in numerical relativity, as they are expected to constitute most gravitational wave observations. However, given that orbital eccentricity is not well-defined in general…

The expected distributions of eclipse-depth versus period for eclipsing binaries of different luminosities are derived from large-scale population synthesis experiments. Using the rapid Hurley et al. BSE binary evolution code, we have…

Rigorously quantifying the information in high contrast imaging data is important for informing follow-up strategies to confirm the substellar nature of a point source, constraining theoretical models of planet-disk interactions, and…

The couplings between supermassive black-hole binaries and their environments within galactic nuclei have been well studied as part of the search for solutions to the final parsec problem. The scattering of stars by the binary or the…

The eccentricity of a planet's orbit and the inclination of its orbital plane encode important information about its formation and history. However, exoplanets detected via direct-imaging are often only observed over a very small fraction…

Estimating the marginal likelihoods is an essential feature of model selection in the Bayesian context. It is especially crucial to have good estimates when assessing the number of planets orbiting stars when the models explain the noisy…

The degree of spin-orbit alignment in a population of binary stars can be determined from measurements of their orbital inclinations and rotational broadening of their spectral lines. Alignment in a face-on binary guarantees low rotational…

An efficient Bayesian technique for estimation problems in fundamental stellar astronomy is tested on simulated data for a binary observed both astrometrically and spectroscopically. Posterior distributions are computed for the components'…

Gravitational waves (GWs) from the inspiral of binary compact objects offer a one-step measurement of the luminosity distance to the event, which is essential for the measurement of the Hubble constant, $H_0$, which characterizes the…

Hydrodynamical simulations show that circumbinary disks become eccentric, even when the binary is circular. Here we demonstrate that, in steady state, the disk's eccentricity behaves as a long-lived free mode trapped by turning points that…