相关论文: Forensic Analysis of the Venezuelan Recall Referen…

A referendum to recall President Hugo Ch\'{a}vez was held in Venezuela in August of 2004. In the referendum, voters were to vote YES if they wished to recall the President and NO if they wanted him to continue in office. The official…

Starting with the 2004 recall referendum, an important opposition sector to President Chavez has questioned the integrity of the Venezuelan electoral system, and casts doubt on the legitimacy and impartiality of the upcoming 2012…

This study analyzes diverse hypotheses of electronic fraud in the Recall Referendum celebrated in Venezuela on August 15, 2004. We define fraud as the difference between the elector's intent, and the official vote tally. Our null hypothesis…

We present a simulation-based study in which the results of two major exit polls conducted during the recall referendum that took place in Venezuela on August 15, 2004, are compared to the official results of the Venezuelan National…

On August 15th, 2004, Venezuelans had the opportunity to vote in a Presidential Recall Referendum to decide whether or not President Hugo Ch\'{a}vez should be removed from office. The process was largely computerized using a touch-screen…

Statistical comparisons of electoral variables are made between groups of electronic voting machines and voting centers classified by types of transmissions according to the volume of traffic in incoming and outgoing data of machines from…

A simple and quick general test to screen for numerical anomalies is presented. It can be applied, for example, to electoral processes, both electronic and manual. It uses vote counts in officially published voting units, which are…

Since the 1970s there has been a large number of countries that combine formal democratic institutions with authoritarian practices. Although in such countries the ruling elites may receive considerable voter support they often employ…

With a majority of 'Yes' votes in the Constitutional Referendum of 2017, Turkey continues its transition from democracy to autocracy. By the will of the Turkish people, this referendum transferred practically all executive power to…

We propose new methods of electoral statistics. With their help, we study transcripts of vote counting in municipal elections. We construct and apply effective statistical tests to detect the ballot stuffing at the level of individual…

Electoral fraud often manifests itself as statistical anomalies in election results, yet its extent can rarely be reliably confirmed by other evidence. Here we report the complete results of municipal elections in the town of Vlasikha near…

In this paper, a new method of detection of election fraud is proposed. This method is based on the calculation of the ratio of two standard normal random variables; estimation of parameters of obtained sample and comparison of these…

Democratic societies are built around the principle of free and fair elections, that each citizen's vote should count equal. National elections can be regarded as large-scale social experiments, where people are grouped into usually large…

The State and its citizens generate lots of data. Once stored and processed, data can help resolve questions in Social Sciences, where it is common to need data in a different level of aggregation than the data is presented. In election…

Analysis of vote distributions using current tools from statistical physics is of increasing interest. While data considered for physics studies are subject to a careful understanding of error sources, such analysis are almost absent in…

We investigate how government-orchestrated assaults on the judiciary, disguised as modernization efforts, undermine judicial independence. Our study focuses on Venezuela's constitutional overhaul in the early 2000s, initiated by Hugo…

The last decade has witnessed an explosion on the computational power and a parallel increase of the access to large sets of data (the so called Big Data paradigm) which is enabling to develop brand new quantitative strategies underpinning…

There is a lot of statistical researches of Russian elections 04.12.2011. The purpose of this activity is to give a mathematical proof of large falsifications and to estimate possible 'real results of elections'. My purpose is to show that…

We survey the design of elections that are resilient to attempted interference by third parties. For example, suppose votes have been cast in an election between two candidates, and then each vote is randomly changed with a small…

In order to address issues with manual vote counting during election procedures, this study intends to examine the viability of using advanced image processing techniques for automated voter counting. The study aims to shed light on how…