相关论文: Multivariate integer-valued autoregressive models …

Compartmental models are valuable tools for investigating infectious diseases. Researchers building such models typically begin with a simple structure where compartments correspond to individuals with different epidemiological statuses,…

Over the last few years, Convolutional Neural Networks (CNNs) were successfully adopted in numerous domains to solve various image-related tasks, ranging from simple classification to fine borders annotation. Tracking seismic horizons is no…

Study of recurrences in earthquakes, climate, financial time-series, etc. is crucial to better forecast disasters and limit their consequences. However, almost all the previous phenomenological studies involved only a long-ranged…

We revisit the recently introduced concept of return risk measures (RRMs) and extend it by incorporating risk management via multiple so-called eligible assets. The resulting new class of risk measures, termed multi-asset return risk…

We study the problem of modeling and inference for spatio-temporal count processes. Our approach uses parsimonious parameterisations of multivariate autoregressive count time series models, including possible regression on covariates. We…

Self-exciting Hawkes processes are used to model events which cluster in time and space, and have been widely studied in seismology under the name of the Epidemic Type Aftershock Sequence (ETAS) model. In the ETAS framework, the occurrence…

Motivated by predicting intraday trading volume curves, we consider two spatio-temporal autoregressive models for matrix time series, in which each column may represent daily trading volume curve of one asset, and each row captures…

Seismic tomography is a methodology to image the interior of solid or fluid media, and is often used to map properties in the subsurface of the Earth. In order to better interpret the resulting images it is important to assess imaging…

In this paper, a new approach to bivariate modeling of autoregressive conditional duration (ACD) models is proposed. Specifically, we consider the joint modeling of durations and the number of transactions made during the spell. The…

The two-fractal overlap model of earthquake shows that the contact area distribution of two fractal surfaces follows power law decay in many cases and this agrees with the Guttenberg-Richter power law. Here, we attempt to predict the large…

This paper introduces a spatiotemporal exponential generalised autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (spatiotemporal E-GARCH) model, extending traditional spatiotemporal GARCH models by incorporating asymmetric volatility…

Spatiotemporal clustering of earthquake events is a generally-established fact, and is important for designing models and assessment techniques in seismicity. Here, we investigate how this behavior can manifest in the statistical…

Multivariate network time series are ubiquitous in modern systems, yet existing network autoregressive models typically treat nodes as scalar processes, ignoring cross-variable spillovers. To capture these complex interactions without the…

In order to figure out and to forecast the emergence phenomena of social systems, we propose several probabilistic models for the analysis of financial markets, especially around a crisis. We first attempt to visualize the collective…

In credit risk analysis, survival models with fixed and time-varying covariates are widely used to predict a borrower's time-to-event. When the time-varying drivers are endogenous, modelling jointly the evolution of the survival time and…

In the current study, a brand-new SINARS(1) model is proposed for stationary discrete time series defined on $\boldsymbol{Z}$, based on extended binomial distribution and the Pegram's operator. The model effectively characterizes the series…

Time series observations are ubiquitous in astronomy, and are generated to distinguish between different types of supernovae, to detect and characterize extrasolar planets and to classify variable stars. These time series are usually…

We present a new technique in order to quantify the dynamics of spatially extended systems. Using a test on the existence of unstable periodic orbits, we identify intermediate spatial scales, wherein the dynamics is characterized by maximum…

We introduce a dynamic and stochastic interbank model with an endogenous notion of distress contagion, arising from rational worries about future defaults and ensuing losses. This entails a mark-to-market valuation adjustment for interbank…

Seismic inversion plays a very useful role in detailed stratigraphic interpretation of seismic data. Seismic inversion enables estimation of rock properties over the complete seismic section. Traditional and machine learning-based seismic…