相关论文: A Stochastic Analysis of Table Tennis

Proper scoring rules are methods for encouraging honest assessment of probability distributions. Just like likelihood, a proper scoring rule can be applied to supply an unbiased estimating equation for any statistical model, and the theory…

Using methods from the statistical mechanics of disordered systems we analyze the properties of bimatrix games with random payoffs in the limit where the number of pure strategies of each player tends to infinity. We analytically calculate…

Shot charts in basketball analytics provide an indispensable tool for evaluating players' shooting performance by visually representing the distribution of field goal attempts across different court locations. However, conventional methods…

In this paper we present a novel approach to optimise tactical and strategic decision making in football (soccer). We model the game of football as a multi-stage game which is made up from a Bayesian game to model the pre-match decisions…

Ranking athletes by their performance in competitions and tournaments is common in every popular sport and has significant benefits that contribute to both the organization and strategic aspects of competitions. Although rankings are…

This paper considers information sharing in a multi-player repeated game. Every round, each player observes a subset of components of a random vector and then takes a control action. The utility earned by each player depends on the full…

Since the advent of computers, many tasks which required humans to spend a lot of time and energy have been trivialized by the computers' ability to perform repetitive tasks extremely quickly. Playing chess is one such task. It was one of…

We study the dynamics and resulting score distribution of three-agent games where after each competition a single agent wins and scores a point. A single competition is described by a triplet of numbers $p$, $t$ and $q$ denoting the…

We consider multiplayer stochastic games in which the payoff of each player is a bounded and Borel-measurable function of the infinite play. By using a generalization of the technique of Martin (1998) and Maitra and Sudderth (1998), we show…

In this paper it is demonstrated that the scoring at each PGA Tour stroke play event can be reasonably modeled as a Gaussian random variable. All 46 stroke play events in the 2007 season are analyzed. The distributions of scores are…

Consistency models, which were proposed to mitigate the high computational overhead during the sampling phase of diffusion models, facilitate single-step sampling while attaining state-of-the-art empirical performance. When integrated into…

A hockey player's plus-minus measures the difference between goals scored by and against that player's team while the player was on the ice. This measures only a marginal effect, failing to account for the influence of the others he is…

The objective of this work is the investigation of complexity, asymmetry, stochasticity and non-linearity of the financial and economic systems by using the tools of statistical mechanics and information theory. More precisely, this thesis…

This paper shows that sequential statistical analysis techniques can be generalised to the problem of selecting between alternative forecasting methods using scoring rules. A return to basic principles is necessary in order to show that…

The study of cultural evolution benefits from detailed analysis of cultural transmission in specific human domains. Chess provides a platform for understanding the transmission of knowledge due to its active community of players, precise…

Competitive balance is the subject of much interest in the sports analytics literature and beyond. In this paper, we develop a statistical network model based on an extension of the stochastic block model to assess the balance between teams…

Who are the most significant players in the history of men tennis? Is the official ATP ranking system fair in evaluating players scores? Which players deserved the most contemplation looking at their match records? Which players have never…

Football forecasting models traditionally rate teams on past match results, that is based on the number of goals scored. Goals, however, involve a high element of chance and thus past results often do not reflect the performances of the…

This article presents a holistic compound Poisson regression model framework to forecast number of corner kicks taken in association football. Corner kick taken events are often decisive in the match outcome and inherently arrive in batch…

The purpose of this paper is to look into how central notions in statistical learning theory, such as realisability, generalise under the assumption that train and test distribution are issued from the same credal set, i.e., a convex set of…