相关论文: The Importance of Prior Choice in Model Selection:…

Individuals use models to guide decisions, but many models are wrong. This paper studies which misspecified models are likely to persist when individuals also entertain alternative models. Consider an agent who uses her model to learn the…

It can be important in Bayesian analyses of complex models to construct informative prior distributions which reflect knowledge external to the data at hand. Nevertheless, how much prior information an analyst can elicit from an expert will…

Predictive models are often introduced to decision-making tasks under the rationale that they improve performance over an existing decision-making policy. However, it is challenging to compare predictive performance against an existing…

Bayesian persuasion, a central model in information design, studies how a sender, who privately observes a state drawn from a prior distribution, strategically sends a signal to influence a receiver's action. A key assumption is that both…

Bayesian model comparison is often based on the posterior distribution over the set of compared models. This distribution is often observed to concentrate on a single model even when other measures of model fit or forecasting ability…

We discuss Bayesian model uncertainty analysis and forecasting in sequential dynamic modeling of multivariate time series. The perspective is that of a decision-maker with a specific forecasting objective that guides thinking about relevant…

Model uncertainty is pervasive in real world analysis situations and is an often-neglected issue in applied statistics. However, standard approaches to the research process do not address the inherent uncertainty in model building and,…

Algorithms deployed in education can shape the learning experience and success of a student. It is therefore important to understand whether and how such algorithms might create inequalities or amplify existing biases. In this paper, we…

Additive Bayesian networks are types of graphical models that extend the usual Bayesian generalized linear model to multiple dependent variables through the factorisation of the joint probability distribution of the underlying variables.…

We propose a new method for conducting Bayesian prediction that delivers accurate predictions without correctly specifying the unknown true data generating process. A prior is defined over a class of plausible predictive models. After…

Persuasion through conversation has been the focus of much research. Nudging is a popular strategy to influence decision-making in physical and digital settings. However, conversational agents employing "nudging" have not received…

To make decisions organisms often accumulate information across multiple timescales. However, most experimental and modeling studies of decision-making focus on sequences of independent trials. On the other hand, natural environments are…

Model Compression has drawn much attention within the deep learning community recently. Compressing a dense neural network offers many advantages including lower computation cost, deployability to devices of limited storage and memories,…

In high dimensional settings, density estimation algorithms rely crucially on their inductive bias. Despite recent empirical success, the inductive bias of deep generative models is not well understood. In this paper we propose a framework…

We consider regression problems where the number of predictors greatly exceeds the number of observations. We propose a method for variable selection that first estimates the regression function, yielding a "pre-conditioned" response…

We reconsider a nonparametric density model based on Gaussian processes. By augmenting the model with latent P\'olya--Gamma random variables and a latent marked Poisson process we obtain a new likelihood which is conjugate to the model's…

Selection bias arises when the probability that an observation enters a dataset depends on variables related to the quantities of interest, leading to systematic distortions in estimation and uncertainty quantification. For example, in…

Power and sample size analysis comprises a critical component of clinical trial study design. There is an extensive collection of methods addressing this problem from diverse perspectives. The Bayesian paradigm, in particular, has attracted…

Pretraining data selection has the potential to improve language model pretraining efficiency by utilizing higher-quality data from massive web data corpora. Current data selection methods, which rely on either hand-crafted rules or larger…

The interpretation of data in terms of multi-parameter models of new physics, using the Bayesian approach, requires the construction of multi-parameter priors. We propose a construction that uses elements of Bayesian reference analysis. Our…