相关论文: The Importance of Prior Choice in Model Selection:…

Occupancy models are typically used to determine the probability of a species being present at a given site while accounting for imperfect detection. The survey data underlying these models often include information on several predictors…

Bayesian methods are increasingly applied in these days in the theory and practice of statistics. Any Bayesian inference depends on a likelihood and a prior. Ideally one would like to elicit a prior from related sources of information or…

In high-dimensional Bayesian statistics, various methods have been developed, including prior distributions that induce parameter sparsity to handle many parameters. Yet, these approaches often overlook the rich spectral structure of the…

In high dimensional regression, global local shrinkage priors have gained significant traction for their ability to yield sparse estimates, improve parameter recovery, and support accurate predictive modeling. While recent work has explored…

In this work we discuss a novel model prior probability for variable selection in linear regression. The idea is to determine the prior mass in an objective sense, by considering the worth of each of the possible regression models, given…

In this paper, we consider a stochastic ratio-dependent predator-prey model. We firstly prove the existence, uniqueness and positivity of the solutions. Then, the boundedness of moments of population are studied. Finally, we show the…

Data-driven predictive solutions predominant in commercial applications tend to suffer from biases and stereotypes, which raises equity concerns. Prediction models may discover, use, or amplify spurious correlations based on gender or other…

In decision making tasks under uncertainty, humans display characteristic biases in seeking, integrating, and acting upon information relevant to the task. Here, we reexamine data from previous carefully designed experiments, collected at…

Predictions of nuclear properties far from measured data are inherently imprecise because of uncertainties in our knowledge of nuclear forces and in our treatment of quantum many-body effects in strongly-interacting systems. While the model…

Bayesian variable selection (BVS) depends critically on the specification of a prior distribution over the model space, particularly for controlling sparsity and multiplicity. This paper examines the practical consequences of different…

We introduce and study a unified Bayesian framework for extended feature allocations which flexibly captures interactions -- such as repulsion or attraction -- among features and their associated weights. We provide a complete Bayesian…

We consider the scenario where the parameters of a probabilistic model are expected to vary over time. We construct a novel prior distribution that promotes sparsity and adapts the strength of correlation between parameters at successive…

We develop a methodology for analyzing language model task performance at the individual example level based on training data density estimation. Experiments with paraphrasing as a controlled intervention on finetuning data demonstrate that…

Density regression provides a flexible strategy for modeling the distribution of a response variable $Y$ given predictors $\mathbf{X}=(X_1,\ldots,X_p)$ by letting that the conditional density of $Y$ given $\mathbf{X}$ as a completely…

Many common correlation structures assumed for data can be described through latent Gaussian models. When Bayesian inference is carried out, it is required to set the prior distribution for scale parameters that rules the model components,…

In Bayesian statistics, the choice of prior distribution is often debatable, especially if prior knowledge is limited or data are scarce. In imprecise probability, sets of priors are used to accurately model and reflect prior knowledge.…

In this paper, we study the effects of different prior and likelihood choices for Bayesian matrix factorisation, focusing on small datasets. These choices can greatly influence the predictive performance of the methods. We identify four…

Construction methods for prior densities are investigated from a predictive viewpoint. Predictive densities for future observables are constructed by using observed data. The simultaneous distribution of future observables and observed data…

We propose a two-component mixture of a noninformative (diffuse) and an informative prior distribution, weighted through the data in such a way to prefer the first component if a prior-data conflict arises. The data-driven approach for…

Sparse modeling for signal processing and machine learning has been at the focus of scientific research for over two decades. Among others, supervised sparsity-aware learning comprises two major paths paved by: a) discriminative methods and…