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In this paper, we investigate estimators for symmetric $\alpha$-stable CARMA processes sampled equidistantly. Simulation studies suggest that the Whittle estimator and the estimator presented in Garc\'{\i}a et al. (2011) are consistent…

统计理论 · 数学 2020-09-11 Vicky Fasen-Hartmann , Celeste Mayer

In this paper we present a parametric estimation method for certain multi-parameter heavy-tailed L\'evy-driven moving averages. The theory relies on recent multivariate central limit theorems obtained in [3] via Malliavin calculus on…

统计理论 · 数学 2021-04-20 Mathias Mørck Ljungdahl , Mark Podolskij

We consider a mixed moving average (MMA) process X driven by a L\'evy basis and prove that it is weakly dependent with rates computable in terms of the moving average kernel and the characteristic quadruple of the L\'evy basis. Using this…

统计理论 · 数学 2022-12-19 Imma Valentina Curato , Robert Stelzer

In this paper we introduce a new model named CARMA(p,q)-Hawkes process as the Hawkes model with exponential kernel implies a strictly decreasing behaviour of the autocorrelation function and empirically evidences reject the monotonicity…

统计金融 · 定量金融 2022-08-23 Lorenzo Mercuri , Andrea Perchiazzo , Edit Rroji

We adapt the classical definition of locally stationary processes in discrete-time to the continuous-time setting and obtain equivalent representations in the time and frequency domain. From this, a unique time-varying spectral density is…

概率论 · 数学 2021-04-29 Annemarie Bitter , Robert Stelzer , Bennet Ströh

This paper is concerned with adaptive kernel estimation of the L\'evy density N(x) for bounded-variation pure-jump L\'evy processes. The sample path is observed at n discrete instants in the "high frequency" context (\Delta = \Delta(n)…

统计理论 · 数学 2013-02-14 Mélina Bec , Claire Lacour

This paper considers a continuous time analogue of the classical autoregressive moving average processes, L\'evy-driven CARMA processes. First we describe limiting properties of the periodogram by means of the so-called truncated Fourier…

概率论 · 数学 2016-08-16 Robert Stelzer , Żywilla fechner

In this paper, we are interested in nonparametric kernel estimation of a generalized regression function, including conditional cumulative distribution and conditional quantile functions, based on an incomplete sample $(X_t, Y_t,…

统计理论 · 数学 2021-10-19 Mohamed Chaouch , Naâmane Laïb

A novel first-order moving-average model for analyzing time series observed at irregularly spaced intervals is introduced. Two definitions are presented, which are equivalent under Gaussianity. The first one relies on normally distributed…

统计理论 · 数学 2021-05-14 Cesar Ojeda , Wilfredo Palma , Susana Eyheramendy , Felipe Elorrieta

Gaussian processes are rich distributions over functions, with generalization properties determined by a kernel function. When used for long-range extrapolation, predictions are particularly sensitive to the choice of kernel parameters. It…

机器学习 · 统计学 2018-02-05 Phillip A. Jang , Andrew E. Loeb , Matthew B. Davidow , Andrew Gordon Wilson

The paper considers high frequency sampled multivariate continuous-time ARMA (MCARMA) models, and derives the asymptotic behavior of the sample autocovariance function to a normal random matrix. Moreover, we obtain the asymptotic behavior…

统计理论 · 数学 2015-08-10 Vicky Fasen

In this paper, we consider function-indexed normalized weighted integrated periodograms for equidistantly sampled multivariate continuous-time state space models which are multivariate continuous-time ARMA processes. Thereby, the sampling…

统计理论 · 数学 2022-09-16 Vicky Fasen-Hartmann , Celeste Mayer

In this paper we present new theoretical results on optimal estimation of certain random quantities based on high frequency observations of a L\'evy process. More specifically, we investigate the asymptotic theory for the conditional mean…

概率论 · 数学 2020-01-09 Jevgenijs Ivanovs , Mark Podolskij

To speed up Gaussian process inference, a number of fast kernel matrix-vector multiplication (MVM) approximation algorithms have been proposed over the years. In this paper, we establish an exact fast kernel MVM algorithm based on exact…

机器学习 · 统计学 2025-08-05 Nicolas Langrené , Xavier Warin , Pierre Gruet

The estimation of the diffusion matrix $\Sigma$ of a high-dimensional, possibly time-changed L\'evy process is studied, based on discrete observations of the process with a fixed distance. A low-rank condition is imposed on $\Sigma$.…

统计理论 · 数学 2018-11-05 Denis Belomestny , Mathias Trabs

In this paper we present a robust estimator for the parameters of a continuous-time ARMA(p,q) (CARMA(p,q)) process sampled equidistantly which is not necessarily Gaussian. Therefore, an indirect estimation procedure is used. It is an…

统计理论 · 数学 2019-11-11 Vicky Fasen-Hartmann , Sebastian Kimmig

We estimate the kernel function of a symmetric alpha stable ($S\alpha S$) moving average random function which is observed on a regular grid of points. The proposed estimator relies on the empirical normalized (smoothed) periodogram. It is…

统计理论 · 数学 2019-08-21 Jürgen Kampf , Georgiy Shevchenko , Evgeny Spodarev

In this paper, we propose a novel and efficient two-stage variable selection approach for sparse GLARMA models, which are pervasive for modeling discrete-valued time series. Our approach consists in iteratively combining the estimation of…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2022-08-31 Marina Gomtsyan , Céline Lévy-Leduc , Sarah Ouadah , Laure Sansonnet , Thomas Blein

In this paper, we propose a novel variable selection approach in the framework of sparse high-dimensional GLARMA models. It consists in combining the estimation of the autoregressive moving average (ARMA) coefficients of these models with…

统计理论 · 数学 2019-10-14 Céline Lévy-Leduc , Sarah Ouadah , Laure Sansonnet

In this paper, we study the nonparametric estimation of the density $f_\Delta$ of an increment of a L\'evy process $X$ based on $n$ observations with a sampling rate $\Delta$. The class of L\'evy processes considered is broad, including…

统计理论 · 数学 2024-11-04 Céline Duval , Taher Jalal , Ester Mariucci