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Imprecise continuous-time Markov chains are a robust type of continuous-time Markov chains that allow for partially specified time-dependent parameters. Computing inferences for them requires the solution of a non-linear differential…

概率论 · 数学 2018-10-11 Alexander Erreygers , Jasper De Bock

Bayesian inference in deep neural networks is challenging due to the high-dimensional, strongly multi-modal parameter posterior density landscape. Markov chain Monte Carlo approaches asymptotically recover the true posterior but are…

In this paper we consider fully Bayesian inference in general state space models. Existing particle Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms use an augmented model that takes into account all the variable sampled in a sequential Monte…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2014-07-31 Christopher K. Carter , Eduardo F. Mendes , Robert Kohn

We consider a class of high-dimensional spatial filtering problems, where the spatial locations of observations are unknown and driven by the partially observed hidden signal. This problem is exceptionally challenging as not only is…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2024-03-07 Hamza Ruzayqat , Alexandros Beskos , Dan Crisan , Ajay Jasra , Nikolas Kantas

We introduce a gradient-based learning method to automatically adapt Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) proposal distributions to intractable targets. We define a maximum entropy regularised objective function, referred to as generalised speed…

机器学习 · 统计学 2020-01-07 Michalis K. Titsias , Petros Dellaportas

Estimation of parameters of a diffusion based on discrete time observations poses a difficult problem due to the lack of a closed form expression for the likelihood. From a Bayesian computational perspective it can be casted as a missing…

统计计算 · 统计学 2017-05-30 Frank van der Meulen , Moritz Schauer

We develop a novel Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method that exploits a hierarchy of models of increasing complexity to efficiently generate samples from an unnormalized target distribution. Broadly, the method rewrites the Multilevel…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2022-09-05 Mikkel B. Lykkegaard , Tim J. Dodwell , Colin Fox , Grigorios Mingas , Robert Scheichl

Real-world distributed systems and networks are often unreliable and subject to random failures of its components. Such a stochastic behavior affects adversely the complexity of optimization tasks performed routinely upon such systems, in…

人工智能 · 计算机科学 2012-12-12 Milos Hauskrecht , Tomas Singliar

The class of $\alpha$-stable distributions enjoys multiple practical applications in signal processing, finance, biology and other areas because it allows to describe interesting and complex data patterns, such as asymmetry or heavy tails,…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2016-06-03 Eugenia Koblents , Joaquin Miguez , Marco A. Rodriguez , Alexandra M. Schmidt

A popular approach to semi-supervised learning proceeds by endowing the input data with a graph structure in order to extract geometric information and incorporate it into a Bayesian framework. We introduce new theory that gives appropriate…

机器学习 · 统计学 2020-01-14 Nicolas Garcia Trillos , Zachary Kaplan , Thabo Samakhoana , Daniel Sanz-Alonso

We propose a Monte Carlo algorithm to sample from high dimensional probability distributions that combines Markov chain Monte Carlo and importance sampling. We provide a careful theoretical analysis, including guarantees on robustness to…

统计计算 · 统计学 2019-09-18 Giacomo Zanella , Gareth Roberts

We prove explicit, i.e. non-asymptotic, error bounds for Markov chain Monte Carlo methods. The problem is to compute the expectation of a function f with respect to a measure {\pi}. Different convergence properties of Markov chains imply…

概率论 · 数学 2020-04-07 Daniel Rudolf

In Bayesian inference, predictive distributions are typically in the form of samples generated via Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) or related algorithms. In this paper, we conduct a systematic analysis of how to make and evaluate…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2020-06-25 Fabian Krüger , Sebastian Lerch , Thordis L. Thorarinsdottir , Tilmann Gneiting

Most successful applications of deep learning involve similar training and test conditions. However, tasks such as biological sequence design involve searching for sequences that improve desirable properties beyond previously known values,…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2025-05-27 Sophia Hager , Aleem Khan , Andrew Wang , Nicholas Andrews

Markov chain Monte Carlo methods are a powerful tool for sampling equilibrium configurations in complex systems. One problem these methods often face is slow convergence over large energy barriers. In this work, we propose a novel method…

计算物理 · 物理学 2024-05-29 Luigi Sbailò , Manuel Dibak , Frank Noé

Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods have become a cornerstone of many modern scientific analyses by providing a straightforward approach to numerically estimate uncertainties in the parameters of a model using a sequence of random…

其他统计学 · 统计学 2020-03-10 Joshua S. Speagle

We describe parallel Markov chain Monte Carlo methods that propagate a collective ensemble of paths, with local covariance information calculated from neighboring replicas. The use of collective dynamics eliminates multiplicative noise and…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2016-07-15 Charles Matthews , Jonathan Weare , Benedict Leimkuhler

The reversible Markov chains that drive the data augmentation (DA) and sandwich algorithms define self-adjoint operators whose spectra encode the convergence properties of the algorithms. When the target distribution has uncountable…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2012-02-06 James P. Hobert , Vivekananda Roy , Christian P. Robert

This paper considers a Markov-modulated duplication-deletion random graph where at each time instant, one node can either join or leave the network; the probabilities of joining or leaving evolve according to the realization of a finite…

信息论 · 计算机科学 2013-03-04 Maziyar Hamdi , Vikram Krishnamurthy , George Yin

Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (HMC) algorithms which combine numerical approximation of Hamiltonian dynamics on finite intervals with stochastic refreshment and Metropolis correction are popular sampling schemes, but it is known that they may…

统计计算 · 统计学 2022-08-16 Peter A. Whalley , Daniel Paulin , Benedict Leimkuhler