相关论文: Discovery of a missing disease spreader
Infectious disease surveillance is of great importance for the prevention of major outbreaks. Syndromic surveillance aims at developing algorithms which can detect outbreaks as early as possible by monitoring data sources which allow to…
Epidemic outbreaks of new pathogens, or known pathogens in new populations, cause a great deal of fear because they are hard to predict. For theoretical models of disease spreading, on the other hand, quantities characterizing the outbreak…
Early, reliable detection of disease outbreaks is a critical problem today. This paper reports an investigation of the use of causal Bayesian networks to model spatio-temporal patterns of a non-contagious disease (respiratory anthrax…
A model of the spread of viruses in selected city and in a network of cities is considered, taking into account the delay caused by the long incubation period of the virus. The effect of delay effects is shown in comparison with pandemics…
Developing methods to analyse infection spread is an important step in the study of pandemic and containing them. The principal mode for geographical spreading of pandemics is the movement of population across regions. We are interested in…
The study of how diseases spread has greatly benefited from advances in network modeling. Recently, a class of networks known as multilayer graphs has been shown to describe more accurately many real systems, making it possible to address…
We introduce an Ising approach to study the spread of malware. The Ising spins up and down are used to represent two states--online and offline--of the nodes in the network. Malware is allowed to propagate amongst online nodes and the rate…
In a complex system, perturbations propagate by following paths on the network of interactions among the system's units. In contrast to what happens with the spreading of epidemics, observations of general perturbations are often very…
Disease and information spread over social and information networks. Understanding the spread phenomena in networks requires paying attention not only to the degree distribution but also to the degree correlation. However, it is considered…
A compartment epidemic model for infectious disease spreading is investigated, where movement of individuals is governed by spatial diffusion. The model includes infection age of the infected individuals and assumes a logistic growth of the…
The Bayesian analysis of infectious disease surveillance data from multiple locations typically involves building and fitting a spatio-temporal model of how the disease spreads in the structured population. Here we present new generally…
In this paper we establish a relation between the spread of infectious diseases and the dynamics of so called M/G/1 queues with processor sharing. The in epidemiology well known relation between the spread of epidemics and branching…
Diffusion processes in networks are increasingly used to model the spread of information and social influence. In several applications in computational sustainability such as the spread of wildlife, infectious diseases and traffic mobility…
A rumor spreading in a social network or a disease propagating in a community can be modeled as an infection spreading in a network. Finding the infection source is a challenging problem, which is made more difficult in many applications…
In this work, we use a new approach to study the spread of an infectious disease. Indeed, we study a SIR epidemic model with variable infectivity, where the individuals are distributed over a compact subset $D$ of $\R^d$. We define…
Interactions between commuting individuals can lead to large-scale spreading of rumors, ideas, or disease, even though the commuters have no net displacement. The emergent dynamics depend crucially on the commuting distribution of a…
The use of network theory to model disease propagation on populations introduces important elements of reality to the classical epidemiological models. The use of random geometric graphs (RGG) is one of such network models that allows for…
In presence of long range dispersal, epidemics spread in spatially disconnected regions known as clusters. Here, we characterize exactly their statistical properties in a solvable model, in both the supercritical (outbreak) and critical…
The timely identification of socio-economic sectors vulnerable to a disease outbreak presents an important challenge to the civic authorities and healthcare workers interested in outbreak mitigation measures. This problem was traditionally…
We study metapopulation models for the spread of epidemics in which different subpopulations (cities) are connected by fluxes of individuals (travelers). This framework allows to describe the spread of a disease on a large scale and we…