相关论文: Simulating the Spread of Pandemics with Different …

Pandemics can cause immense disruption and damage to communities and societies. Thus far, modeling of pandemics has focused on either large-scale difference equation models like the SIR and the SEIR models, or detailed micro-level…

Pandemics have the potential to cause immense disruption and damage to communities and societies. In this paper, we model the Influenza Pandemic of 2009. We propose a hybrid model to determine how the pandemic spreads through the world. The…

In this paper, we study how interactions between populations impact epidemic spread. We extend the classical SEIR model to include both integration-based disease transmission simulation and population flow. Our model differs from existing…

Influenza Pandemic of 1957-1958, also called Asian Flu Pandemic, was one of the most widespread pandemics in history. In this paper, we model the pandemic, considering the effect of the Cold War. There were some restrictions between Western…

The Influenza Pandemic of 1918-1919, also called Spanish Flu Pandemic, was one of the severest pandemics in history. It is thought that the First World War much influenced the spread of the pandemic. In this paper, we model the pandemic…

We model the spreading of a crisis by constructing a global economic network and applying the Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) epidemic model with a variable probability of infection. The probability of infection depends on the strength…

In the last decade, humanity has faced many different pandemics such as SARS, H1N1, and presently novel coronavirus (COVID-19). On one side, scientists are focusing on vaccinations, and on the other side, there is a need to propose models…

Pandemic outbreak creates a life threatening situation around the world and for a while it feels as if it slows down the world. A lot of effort is being taken to mitigate the spread of the pandemics. The main objective of this paper is to…

Epidemic spread on networks is one of the most studied dynamics in network science and has important implications in real epidemic scenarios. Nonetheless, the dynamics of real epidemics and how it is affected by the underline structure of…

Developing methods to analyse infection spread is an important step in the study of pandemic and containing them. The principal mode for geographical spreading of pandemics is the movement of population across regions. We are interested in…

In the past few decades, the frequency of pandemics has been increased due to the growth of urbanization and mobility among countries. Since a disease spreading in one country could become a pandemic with a potential worldwide humanitarian…

We study the dynamics of a spatially structured model of worldwide epidemics and formulate predictions for arrival times of the disease at any city in the network. The model is comprised of a system of ordinary differential equations…

Two factors that are often ignored but could play a crucial role in the progression of an infectious disease are the distributions of inherent susceptibility ($\sigma_{inh}$) and external infectivity ($\iota_{ext}$), in a given population.…

Epidemiological models are the mathematical models that capture the dynamics of epidemics. The spread of the virus has two routes - exogenous and endogenous. The exogenous spread is from outside the population under study, and endogenous…

Many real networks are not isolated from each other but form networks of networks, often interrelated in non trivial ways. Here, we analyze an epidemic spreading process taking place on top of two interconnected complex networks. We develop…

Current efforts of modelling COVID-19 are often based on the standard compartmental models such as SEIR and their variations. As pre-symptomatic and asymptomatic cases can spread the disease between populations through travel, it is…

Based on the SEIR model and the modeling of urban transportation networks, a general-purpose simulator for the spread of epidemics in Chinese cities is built. The Chinese public transportation system between over 340 prefectural-level…

We develop simple models for the global spread of infectious diseases, emphasizing human mobility via air travel and the variation of public health infrastructure from region to region. We derive formulas relating the total and peak number…

Understanding the dynamics of the spread of diseases within populations is critical for effective public health interventions. We extend the classical SIR model by incorporating additional complexities such as the introduction of a cure and…

We study how international flights can facilitate the spread of an epidemic to a worldwide scale. We combine an infrastructure network of flight connections with a population density dataset to derive the mobility network, and then we…