相关论文: Bayesian Study and Naturalness in MSSM Forecast fo…

The tuning parameter selection strategy for penalized estimation is crucial to identify a model that is both interpretable and predictive. However, popular strategies (e.g., minimizing average squared prediction error via cross-validation)…

This paper presents a Bayesian optimization framework for the automatic tuning of shared controllers which are defined as a Model Predictive Control (MPC) problem. The proposed framework includes the design of performance metrics as well as…

We propose a multistage method for making inference at all levels of a Bayesian hierarchical model (BHM) using natural data partitions to increase efficiency by allowing computations to take place in parallel form using software that is…

Models of weak-scale supersymmetry offer viable dark matter (DM) candidates. Their parameter spaces are however rather large and complex, such that pinning down the actual parameter values from experimental data can depend strongly on the…

Autonomous motion planning is critical for efficient and safe underwater manipulation in dynamic marine environments. Current motion planning methods often fail to effectively utilize prior motion experiences and adapt to real-time…

In small area estimation, it is sometimes necessary to use model-based methods to produce estimates in areas with little or no data. In official statistics, we often require that some aggregate of small area estimates agree with a national…

Bayesian methods have been very successful in quantifying uncertainty in physics-based problems in parameter estimation and prediction. In these cases, physical measurements y are modeled as the best fit of a physics-based model…

We review and contrast frequentist and Bayesian definitions of tolerance regions. We give conditions under which for large samples a Bayesian region also has frequentist validity, and study the latter for smaller samples in a simulation…

We consider the Bayesian estimation of the parameters of a finite mixture model from independent order statistics arising from imperfect ranked set sampling designs. As a cost-effective method, ranked set sampling enables us to incorporate…

We apply two Bayesian hierarchical inference schemes to infer shear power spectra, shear maps and cosmological parameters from the CFHTLenS weak lensing survey - the first application of this method to data. In the first approach, we sample…

Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) has gained popularity as a method for conducting inference and forecasting in complex models, most notably those which are intractable in some sense. In this paper we use ABC to produce probabilistic…

In this work the issue of Bayesian inference for stationary data is addressed. Therefor a parametrization of a statistically suitable subspace of the the shift-ergodic probability measures on a Cartesian product of some finite state space…

The problem of preferential sampling in geostatistics arises when the choise of location to be sampled is made with information about the phenomena in the study. The geostatistical model under preferential sampling deals with this problem,…

Air pollution remains a major environmental risk factor that is often associated with adverse health outcomes. However, quantifying and evaluating its effects on human health is challenging due to the complex nature of exposure data. Recent…

We introduce an exact Bayesian approach to search for non-Gaussianity of local type in Cosmic Microwave Background (CMB) radiation data. Using simulated CMB temperature maps, the newly developed technique is compared against the…

We present the results and prospects for searches beyond the Standard Model (SM) at the LHC by the ATLAS and CMS collaborations. The minimal supersymmetric extension of the SM has been investigated in various configurations and lower limits…

Language models (LMs) trained on vast quantities of text data can acquire sophisticated skills such as generating summaries, answering questions or generating code. However, they also manifest behaviors that violate human preferences, e.g.,…

Probabilistic programming languages can simplify the development of machine learning techniques, but only if inference is sufficiently scalable. Unfortunately, Bayesian parameter estimation for highly coupled models such as regressions and…

We estimate the current theoretical uncertainty in sparticle mass predictions by comparing several state-of-the-art computations within the minimal supersymmetric standard model (MSSM). We find that the theoretical uncertainty is comparable…

Scientific discovery is increasingly constrained by costly experiments and limited resources, underscoring the need for efficient optimization in AI for science. Bayesian Optimization (BO), though widely adopted for balancing exploration…