相关论文: The Xerographic Distribution: Scientific Reasoning…

We will discuss the link between scientific explanations and probabilities, specially in relationship with statistical mechanics and the derivation of macroscopic laws from microscopic ones.

We enable aProbLog---a probabilistic logical programming approach---to reason in presence of uncertain probabilities represented as Beta-distributed random variables. We achieve the same performance of state-of-the-art algorithms for highly…

Prediction in quantum cosmology requires a specification of the universe's quantum dynamics and its quantum state. We expect only a few general features of the universe to be predicted with probabilities near unity conditioned on the…

The process of doing Science in condition of uncertainty is illustrated with a toy experiment in which the inferential and the forecasting aspects are both present. The fundamental aspects of probabilistic reasoning, also relevant in real…

We consider how to define a natural probability distribution over worlds within a simple class of deterministic many-worlds theories. This can help us understand the typical properties of worlds within such states, and hence explain the…

Given a random process $x(\tau)$ which undergoes stochastic resetting at a constant rate $r$ to a position drawn from a distribution ${\cal P}(x)$, we consider a sequence of dynamical observables $A_1, \dots, A_n$ associated to the…

In this paper we describe a theory of a cumulative distribution function on a space with an order from a probability measure defined in this space. This distribution function plays a similar role to that played in the classical case.…

We explore the phenomenological implications of generalizing measures to a multidimensional multiverse. We consider a simple model in which the vacua are nucleated from a $D$-dimensional parent spacetime through dynamical compactification…

We study the probability distribution function of the long-time values of observables being time-evolved by Hamiltonians modeling clean and disordered one-dimensional chains of many spin-1/2 particles. In particular, we analyze the return…

In extracting predictions from theories that describe a multiverse, we face the difficulty that we must assess probability distributions over possible observations, prescribed not just by an underlying theory, but by a theory together with…

Often it is assumed that a quantum state or a phase-space distribution must be normalizable. Here it is shown that even if it is not normalizable, one may be able to extract normalized observational probabilities from it.

We consider the problem of performing predecessor searches in a bounded universe while achieving query times that depend on the distribution of queries. We obtain several data structures with various properties: in particular, we give data…

I will propose the notion that the universe is digital, not as a claim about what the universe is made of but rather about the way it unfolds. Central to the argument will be the concepts of symmetry breaking and algorithmic probability,…

It is shown that the homogeneous and isotropic Universe is spatially flat in the limit which takes into account the moments of infinitely large orders of probabilistic distribution of a scale factor with respect to its mean value in the…

If the prior probability distributions of all possible hypothetical true means and all possible observed means of a continuous variable are conditional on the universal set of all numbers (i.e., before the nature of a study is known and a…

Cosmological fine-tuning has traditionally been associated with the narrowness of the intervals in which the parameters of the physical models must be located to make life possible. A more thorough approach focuses on the probability of the…

Recent decades have seen an interest in prediction problems for which Bayesian methodology has been used ubiquitously. Sampling from or approximating the posterior predictive distribution in a Bayesian model allows one to make inferential…

If the Universe contains at least one inflationary domain with a sufficiently large and homogeneous scalar field, then this domain permanently produces new inflationary domains of all possible types. We show that under certain conditions…

In using observed data to make inferences about a population quantity, it is commonly assumed that the sampling distribution from which the data were drawn belongs to a given parametric family of distributions, or at least, a given finite…

The use of surrogate models instead of computationally expensive simulation codes is very convenient in engineering. Roughly speaking, there are two kinds of surrogate models: the deterministic and the probabilistic ones. These last are…