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When using optimal linear prediction to interpolate point observations of a mean square continuous stationary spatial process, one often finds that the interpolant mostly depends on those observations located nearest to the predictand. This…

统计理论 · 数学 2012-03-09 Michael L. Stein

We report the observations of the clear sky fraction at the Concordia station during winter 2006, and derive from it the duty cycle for astronomical observations. Performance in duty cycle and observation duration promotes Dome C for…

天体物理学 · 物理学 2007-05-23 Mosser Benoit , Aristidi Eric

The series of mean daily temperature of air recorded over a period of 215 years is used for analysing the dimensionality and the predictability of the atmospheric system. The total number of data points of the series is 78527. Other 37…

comp-gas · 物理学 2009-10-28 Ales Raidl

Oftentimes in practice, the observed process changes statistical properties at an unknown point in time and the duration of a change is substantially finite, in which case one says that the change is intermittent or transient. We provide an…

应用统计 · 统计学 2023-04-11 Grigory Sokolov , Valentin S. Spivak , Alexander G. Tartakovsky

This paper addresses the question of identifying the time-window in short-term past from which the information regarding the future occupant's window opening actions and resulting window states in buildings can be predicted. The addressed…

计算机与社会 · 计算机科学 2018-09-27 Romana Markovic , Jérôme Frisch , Christoph van Treeck

Wind-speed processes exhibit substantial temporal variability and spatial dependence, yet volatility dynamics across monitoring networks remain relatively unexplored. This study investigates the spatiotemporal behaviour of wind-speed…

应用统计 · 统计学 2026-05-11 Ariane Nidelle Meli Chrisko , Philipp Otto

We present the results of the first strong lens time delay challenge. The motivation, experimental design, and entry level challenge are described in a companion paper. This paper presents the main challenge, TDC1, which consisted of…

The problem of stopping stochastic gradient descent (SGD) in an online manner, based solely on the observed trajectory, is a challenging theoretical problem with significant consequences for applications. While SGD is routinely monitored as…

最优化与控制 · 数学 2026-02-24 Liviu Aolaritei , Michael I. Jordan

We study the parametric online changepoint detection problem, where the underlying distribution of the streaming data changes from a known distribution to an alternative that is of a known parametric form but with unknown parameters. We…

统计理论 · 数学 2023-05-22 Liyan Xie , George V. Moustakides , Yao Xie

From the South Pole, microthermal turbulence within a narrow surface boundary layer some 200m thick provides the dominant contribution to the astronomical seeing. We present results for the seeing at a wavelength of 2.4um. The narrow…

天体物理学 · 物理学 2009-11-07 RD Marks

Intermittent time series, characterised by the presence of a significant amount of zeros, constitute a large percentage of inventory items in supply chain. Probabilistic forecasts are needed to plan the inventory levels; the predictive…

机器学习 · 统计学 2026-01-21 Stefano Damato , Nicolò Rubattu , Dario Azzimonti , Giorgio Corani

Accurate estimation of the human circadian phase plays an important role in personalized health monitoring, but most existing wearable-based approaches operate retrospectively and require full circadian cycle recordings, leading to high…

信号处理 · 电气工程与系统科学 2026-05-05 Mengzhu Xu , Nemanja Cabrilo , Merel van Gilst , Jean-Paul Linnartz

B-band light-curve rise times for eight unusually well-observed nearby Type Ia supernovae (SNe) are fitted by a newly developed template-building algorithm, using light-curve functions that are smooth, flexible, and free of potential bias…

天体物理学 · 物理学 2009-11-13 Mark Strovink

Strong gravitational lensing forms multiple, time delayed images of cosmological sources, with the "focal length" of the lens serving as a cosmological distance probe. Robust estimation of the time delay distance can tightly constrain the…

宇宙学与河外天体物理 · 物理学 2014-12-10 Alireza Hojjati , Eric V. Linder

We study properties of confidence intervals (CIs) for the difference of two Bernoulli distributions' success parameters, $p_x - p_y$, in the case where the goal is to obtain a CI of a given half-width while minimizing sampling costs when…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2023-11-23 Ignacio Erazo , David Goldsman , Yajun Mei

An analytic effective medium theory is constructed to study the mean access times for random walks on hybrid disordered structures formed by embedding complex networks into regular lattices, considering transition rates $F$ that are…

无序系统与神经网络 · 物理学 2009-11-13 Paul E. Parris , Julián Candia , V. M. Kenkre

ASTEP South is an Antarctic Search for Transiting Exo- Planets in the South pole field, from the Concordia station, Dome C, Antarctica. The instrument consists of a thermalized 10 cm refractor observing a fixed 3.88\degree x 3.88\degree…

Over the past few years a major effort has been put into the exploration of potential sites for the deployment of submillimetre astronomical facilities. Amongst the most important sites are Dome C and Dome A on the Antarctic Plateau, and…

We report on the limitations of sky subtraction accuracy for long duration fibre-optic multi-object spectroscopy of faint astronomical sources during long duration exposures. We show that while standard sky subtraction techniques yield…

天体物理仪器与方法 · 物理学 2015-05-19 Robert Sharp , Hannah Parkinson

We present a measurement of the distant Type Ia supernova rate derived from the first two years of the Canada -- France -- Hawaii Telescope Supernova Legacy Survey. We observed four one-square degree fields with a typical temporal frequency…