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We describe a simple method that can be used to sample the rare fluctuations of discrete-time Markov chains. We focus on the case of Markov chains with well-defined steady-state measures, and derive expressions for the large-deviation rate…

统计力学 · 物理学 2018-03-28 Stephen Whitelam

Random sampling of graph partitions under constraints has become a popular tool for evaluating legislative redistricting plans. Analysts detect partisan gerrymandering by comparing a proposed redistricting plan with an ensemble of sampled…

应用统计 · 统计学 2023-11-09 Cory McCartan , Kosuke Imai

We prove finite sample complexities for sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) algorithms which require only local mixing times of the associated Markov kernels. Our bounds are particularly useful when the target distribution is multimodal and global…

统计计算 · 统计学 2022-08-16 Joseph Mathews , Scott C. Schmidler

This paper introduces a concept of approximate spectral gap to analyze the mixing time of Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms for which the usual spectral gap is degenerate or almost degenerate. We use the idea to analyze a class of…

统计计算 · 统计学 2019-08-26 Yves F. Atchadé

This simple note lays out a few observations which are well known in many ways but may not have been said in quite this way before. The basic idea is that when comparing two different Markov chains it is useful to couple them is such a way…

概率论 · 数学 2017-11-16 James E. Johndrow , Jonathan C. Mattingly

This paper introduces a Bayesian framework that combines Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling, dimensionality reduction, and neural density estimation to efficiently handle inverse problems that (i) must be solved multiple times, and…

计算工程、金融与科学 · 计算机科学 2026-02-24 Giacomo Bottacini , Matteo Torzoni , Andrea Manzoni

The configuration model is a standard tool for uniformly generating random graphs with a specified degree sequence, and is often used as a null model to evaluate how much of an observed network's structure can be explained by its degree…

社会与信息网络 · 计算机科学 2023-05-31 Upasana Dutta , Bailey K. Fosdick , Aaron Clauset

Hybrid Monte Carlo (HMC) generates samples from a prescribed probability distribution in a configuration space by simulating Hamiltonian dynamics, followed by the Metropolis (-Hastings) acceptance/rejection step. Compressible HMC (CHMC)…

计算物理 · 物理学 2016-04-05 Akihiko Nishimura , David Dunson

We study the optimal transport problem for pairs of stationary finite-state Markov chains, with an emphasis on the computation of optimal transition couplings. Transition couplings are a constrained family of transport plans that capture…

最优化与控制 · 数学 2021-09-20 Kevin O'Connor , Kevin McGoff , Andrew B. Nobel

Sampling the parameters of high-dimensional Continuous Time Markov Chains (CTMC) is a challenging problem with important applications in many fields of applied statistics. In this work a recently proposed type of non-reversible…

机器学习 · 统计学 2021-06-01 Tingting Zhao , Alexandre Bouchard-Côté

Efficient sampling of many-dimensional and multimodal density functions is a task of great interest in many research fields. We describe an algorithm that allows parallelizing inherently serial Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling by…

统计计算 · 统计学 2020-08-10 Vasyl Hafych , Philipp Eller , Oliver Schulz , Allen Caldwell

We survey existing techniques to bound the mixing time of Markov chains. The mixing time is related to a geometric parameter called conductance which is a measure of edge-expansion. Bounds on conductance are typically obtained by a…

数据结构与算法 · 计算机科学 2016-03-07 Venkatesan Guruswami

Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) is a well-established family of algorithms primarily used in Bayesian statistics to sample from a target distribution when direct sampling is challenging. Existing work on Bayesian decision trees uses MCMC.…

统计计算 · 统计学 2023-01-24 Efthyvoulos Drousiotis , Paul G. Spirakis , Simon Maskell

Planning problems are hard, motion planning, for example, isPSPACE-hard. Such problems are even more difficult in the presence of uncertainty. Although, Markov Decision Processes (MDPs) provide a formal framework for such problems, finding…

人工智能 · 计算机科学 2013-01-14 Carlos E. Guestrin , Dirk Ormoneit

This paper considers a new approach to using Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) in contexts where one may adopt multilevel (ML) Monte Carlo. The underlying problem is to approximate expectations w.r.t. an underlying probability measure that is…

数值分析 · 数学 2018-06-27 Ajay Jasra , Kody Law , Yaxian Xu

Markov chain Monte Carlo methods are a powerful tool for sampling equilibrium configurations in complex systems. One problem these methods often face is slow convergence over large energy barriers. In this work, we propose a novel method…

计算物理 · 物理学 2024-05-29 Luigi Sbailò , Manuel Dibak , Frank Noé

The Metropolis-Hastings algorithm is a fundamental Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method for sampling and inference. With the advent of Big Data, distributed and parallel variants of MCMC methods are attracting increased attention. In this…

数据结构与算法 · 计算机科学 2019-07-16 Weiming Feng , Thomas P. Hayes , Yitong Yin

We introduce a Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method that is designed to sample from target distributions with irregular geometry using an adaptive scheme. In cases where targets exhibit non-Gaussian behaviour, we propose that adaption…

统计计算 · 统计学 2023-10-06 Ameer Dharamshi , Vivian Ngo , Jeffrey S. Rosenthal

This paper studies the mixing time of certain adaptive Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithms. Under some regularity conditions, we show that the convergence rate of Importance Resampling MCMC (IRMCMC) algorithm, measured in terms of the total…

概率论 · 数学 2014-07-29 Yves Atchadé , Yizao Wang

We propose a Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm based on third-order Langevin dynamics for sampling from distributions with log-concave and smooth densities. The higher-order dynamics allow for more flexible discretization schemes,…

机器学习 · 统计学 2020-05-27 Wenlong Mou , Yi-An Ma , Martin J. Wainwright , Peter L. Bartlett , Michael I. Jordan