相关论文: Stochastic modeling of Congress

In the U.S. Congress, legislators can use active and passive cosponsorship to support bills. We show that these two types of cosponsorship are driven by two different motivations: the backing of political colleagues and the backing of the…

Previous research indicates that race, ethnicity, and gender influence legislative behavior in important ways. The bulk of this research, however, focuses on the way these characteristics shape an individual legislator's behavior, making it…

Each year, the United States Congress considers thousands of legislative proposals to select bills to present to the US President to sign into law. Naturally, the decision processes of members of Congress are subject to peer influence. In…

We study the role of co-jumps in the interest rate futures markets. To disentangle continuous part of quadratic covariation from co-jumps, we localize the co-jumps precisely through wavelet coefficients and identify statistically…

We introduce a generalized homogeneous function to describe the joint probability density for magnitude and duration of events in self-organized critical systems (SOC). It follows that the cumulative distributions of magnitude and of…

We propose a model for stochastic formation of opinion clusters, modelled by an evolving network, and herd behaviour to account for the observed fat-tail distribution in returns of financial-price data. The only parameter of the model is h,…

We apply the formalism of the continuous time random walk to the study of financial data. The entire distribution of prices can be obtained once two auxiliary densities are known. These are the probability densities for the pausing time…

We examine random variables in the power law/regularly varying class with stochastic tail exponent, the exponent $\alpha$ having its own distribution. We show the effect of stochasticity of $\alpha$ on the expectation and higher moments of…

We study the United States Congress by constructing networks between Members of Congress based on the legislation that they cosponsor. Using the concept of modularity, we identify the community structure of Congressmen, as connected via…

The technique of Pad\'e Approximants, introduced in a previous work, is applied to extended recent data on the distribution of variations of interest rates compiled by the Federal Reserve System in the US. It is shown that new power laws…

Cooperation in the form of vote trading, also known as logrolling, is central for law-making processes, shaping the development of democratic societies. Empirical evidence of logrolling is scarce and limited to highly specific situations…

We analyze the statistical dependency structure of the S&P 500 constituents in the 4-year period from 2007 to 2010 using intraday data from the New York Stock Exchange's TAQ database. With a copula-based approach, we find that the…

A broad range of dynamical systems involve multi-body interactions, or group interactions, which may not be encoded in traditional graphical structures. In this work, we focus on a canonical example from opinion dynamics, the Majority Rule,…

We study a stochastic model for the diffusion of competing opinions in a population composed of three types of agents: trend-followers, opposers, and indifferent individuals. The decision dynamics are driven by reinforcement mechanisms,…

The growth of ballistic aggregates on deterministic fractal substrates is studied by means of numerical simulations. First, we attempt the description of the evolving interface of the aggregates by applying the well-established…

Many networks in political and social research are bipartite, with edges connecting exclusively across two distinct types of nodes. A common example includes cosponsorship networks, in which legislators are connected indirectly through the…

This paper explores the dependence modeling of financial assets in a dynamic way and its critical role in measuring risk. Two new methods, called Accelerated Moving Window method and Bottom-up method are proposed to detect the change of…

Power law distributions of macroscopic observables are ubiquitous in both the natural and social sciences. They are indicative of correlated, cooperative phenomena between groups of interacting agents at the microscopic level. In this paper…

We analyse bill cosponsorship networks in the Italian Chamber of Deputies. In comparison with other parliaments, a distinguishing feature of the Chamber is the large number of political groups. Our analysis aims to infer the pattern of…

The Hegselmann--Krause model is a prototypical model for opinion dynamics. It models the stochastic time evolution of an agent's or voter's opinion in response to the opinion of other like-minded agents. The Hegselmann--Krause model only…