相关论文: Evaluating Default Priors with a Generalization of…

We consider evaluation of proper posterior distributions obtained from improper prior distributions. Our context is estimating a bounded function $\phi$ of a parameter when the loss is quadratic. If the posterior mean of $\phi$ is…

Consider a parametric statistical model $P(\mathrm{d}x|\theta)$ and an improper prior distribution $\nu(\mathrm{d}\theta)$ that together yield a (proper) formal posterior distribution $Q(\mathrm{d}\theta|x)$. The prior is called strongly…

We consider situations in Bayesian analysis where we have a family of priors $\nu_h$ on the parameter $\theta$, where $h$ varies continuously over a space $\mathcal{H}$, and we deal with two related problems. The first involves sensitivity…

Consider a Bayesian situation in which we observe $Y \sim p_{\theta}$, where $\theta \in \Theta$, and we have a family $\{ \nu_h, \, h \in \mathcal{H} \}$ of potential prior distributions on $\Theta$. Let $g$ be a real-valued function of…

Markov chain analysis is a key technique in formal verification. A practical obstacle is that all probabilities in Markov models need to be known. However, system quantities such as failure rates or packet loss ratios, etc. are often not --…

The interpretation of data in terms of multi-parameter models of new physics, using the Bayesian approach, requires the construction of multi-parameter priors. We propose a construction that uses elements of Bayesian reference analysis. Our…

This paper introduces a framework for incorporating prior information into the design of sequential experiments. These sources may include past experiments, expert opinions, or the experimenter's intuition. We model the problem using a…

Bayesian methods are increasingly applied in these days in the theory and practice of statistics. Any Bayesian inference depends on a likelihood and a prior. Ideally one would like to elicit a prior from related sources of information or…

The main challenges that arise when adopting Gaussian Process priors in probabilistic modeling are how to carry out exact Bayesian inference and how to account for uncertainty on model parameters when making model-based predictions on…

Markov chains are a natural and well understood tool for describing one-dimensional patterns in time or space. We show how to infer $k$-th order Markov chains, for arbitrary $k$, from finite data by applying Bayesian methods to both…

For finite parameter spaces under finite loss, every Bayes procedure derived from a prior with full support is admissible, and every admissible procedure is Bayes. This relationship already breaks down once we move to finite-dimensional…

We introduce a three-parameter random walk with reinforcement, called the $(\theta,\alpha,\beta)$ scheme, which generalizes the linearly edge reinforced random walk to uncountable spaces. The parameter $\beta$ smoothly tunes the…

We define a conjugate prior for the reversible Markov chain of order $r$. The prior arises from a partially exchangeable reinforced random walk, in the same way that the Beta distribution arises from the exchangeable Poly\'{a} urn. An…

We consider the parameter estimation of Markov chain when the unknown transition matrix belongs to an exponential family of transition matrices. Then, we show that the sample mean of the generator of the exponential family is an…

Although Bayes's theorem demands a prior that is a probability distribution on the parameter space, the calculus associated with Bayes's theorem sometimes generates sensible procedures from improper priors, Pitman's estimator being a good…

When the initial and transition probabilities of a finite Markov chain in discrete time are not well known, we should perform a sensitivity analysis. This is done by considering as basic uncertainty models the so-called credal sets that…

The proposal and study of dependent prior processes has been a major research focus in the recent Bayesian nonparametric literature. In this paper, we introduce a flexible class of dependent nonparametric priors, investigate their…

We consider Markov chains that obey the following general non-linear state space model: $\Phi_{k+1} = F(\Phi_k, \alpha(\Phi_k, U_{k+1}))$ where the function $F$ is $C^1$ while $\alpha$ is typically discontinuous and $\{U_k: k \in…

Statistical models can involve implicitly defined quantities, such as solutions to nonlinear ordinary differential equations (ODEs), that unavoidably need to be numerically approximated in order to evaluate the model. The approximation…

Increasingly complex applications involve large datasets in combination with non-linear and high dimensional mathematical models. In this context, statistical inference is a challenging issue that calls for pragmatic approaches that take…