相关论文: Test Martingales, Bayes Factors and $p$-Values
Outer measures can be used for statistical inference in place of probability measures to bring flexibility in terms of model specification. The corresponding statistical procedures such as Bayesian inference, estimators or hypothesis…
The notion of p-value is a fundamental concept in statistical inference and has been widely used for reporting outcomes of hypothesis tests. However, p-value is often misinterpreted, misused or miscommunicated in practice. Part of the issue…
The Bayes factor, the data-based updating factor from prior to posterior odds, is a principled measure of relative evidence for two competing hypotheses. It is naturally suited to sequential data analysis in settings such as clinical trials…
Some classes of increment martingales, and the corresponding localized classes, are studied. An increment martingale is indexed by the real line and its increment processes are martingales. We focus primarily on the behavior as time goes to…
A Bayes factor is proposed for testing whether the effect of a key predictor variable on the dependent variable is linear or nonlinear, possibly while controlling for certain covariates. The test can be used (i) when one is interested in…
The main object of this paper is to present some general concepts of Bayesian inference and more specifically the estimation of the hyperparameters in inverse problems. We consider a general linear situation where we are given some data…
We introduce the notion of p*-values (p*-variables), which generalizes p-values (p-variables) in several senses. The new notion has four natural interpretations: operational, probabilistic, Bayesian, and frequentist. A main example of a…
A pervasive issue in statistical hypothesis testing is that the reported $p$-values are biased downward by data "peeking" -- the practice of reporting only progressively extreme values of the test statistic as more data samples are…
Testing the equality of two proportions is a common procedure in science, especially in medicine and public health. In these domains it is crucial to be able to quantify evidence for the absence of a treatment effect. Bayesian hypothesis…
We introduce a joint posterior $p$-value, an extension of the posterior predictive $p$-value for multiple test statistics, designed to address limitations of existing Bayesian $p$-values in the setting of continuous model expansion. In…
The classic model of computable randomness considers martingales that take real or rational values. Recent work by Bienvenu et al. (2012) and Teutsch (2014) shows that fundamental features of the classic model change when the martingales…
In an empirical Bayesian setting, we provide a new multiple testing method, useful when an additional covariate is available, that influences the probability of each null hypothesis being true. We measure the posterior significance of each…
Statistical analysis is often used to evaluate the evidence for or against scientific hypotheses, and various statistics (e.g., p-values, likelihood ratios, Bayes factors) are interpreted as measures of evidence strength. Here I consider…
We introduce a method for calculating \(p\)-values to test causal hypotheses in qualitative research \emph{a la} process tracing. As in an experiment, our \(p\)-value tells us how often one would make the same or more compelling…
We present a new test of hypothesis in which we seek the probability of the null conditioned on the data, where the null is a simplification undertaken to counter the intractability of the more complex model, that the simpler null model is…
We point out that the Neyman-Pearson lemma applies to Bayes factors if we consider expected type-1 and type-2 error rates. That is, the Bayes factor is the test statistic that maximises the expected power for a fixed expected type-1 error…
Termination is one of the basic liveness properties, and we study the termination problem for probabilistic programs with real-valued variables. Previous works focused on the qualitative problem that asks whether an input program terminates…
Sequential estimation of a probability $p$ by means of inverse binomial sampling is considered. For $\mu_1,\mu_2>1$ given, the accuracy of an estimator $\hat{p}$ is measured by the confidence level $P[p/\mu_2\leq\hat{p}\leq p\mu_1]$. The…
A common concern with Bayesian methodology in scientific contexts is that inferences can be heavily influenced by subjective biases. As presented here, there are two types of bias for some quantity of interest: bias against and bias in…
When a mathematical or computational model is used to analyse some system, it is usual that some parameters resp.\ functions or fields in the model are not known, and hence uncertain. These parametric quantities are then identified by…