相关论文: Une \'etude de physique sur les \'elections

Human dynamics and sociophysics suggest statistical models that may explain and provide us with better insight into social phenomena. Here we tackle the problem of determining the distribution of the population density of a social space…

The voter model has been studied extensively as a paradigmatic opinion dynamics' model. However, its ability for modeling real opinion dynamics has not been addressed. We introduce a noisy voter model (accounting for social influence) with…

We explain the anomaly of election results between large cities and rural areas in terms of urban scaling in the 1948-2016 US elections and in the 2016 EU referendum of the UK. The scaling curves are all universal and depend on a single…

Numerous models in opinion dynamics focus on the temporal dynamics within a single electoral unit (e.g., country). The empirical observations, on the other hand, are often made across multiple electoral units (e.g., polling stations) at a…

The stochastic dynamics of the multi-state voter model is investigated on a class of complex networks made of non-overlapping cliques, each hosting a political candidate and interacting with the others via Erd\H{o}s-R\'enyi links. Numerical…

The election control problem through social influence asks to find a set of nodes in a social network of voters to be the starters of a political campaign aiming at supporting a given target candidate. Voters reached by the campaign change…

We explore the statistical laws behind the plurality voting system by investigating the election results for mayor held in Brazil in 2004. Our analysis indicate that the vote partition among mayor candidates of the same city tends to be…

This work analyses surprising elections, and attempts to quantify the notion of surprise in elections. A voter is surprised if their estimate of the winner (assumed to be based on a combination of the preferences of their social connections…

In this paper, we apply genetic algorithms to the field of electoral studies. Forecasting election results is one of the most exciting and demanding tasks in the area of market research, especially due to the fact that decisions have to be…

There are many factors that can influence the outcome of an election. We here identify two dominant effects that can affect the votes obtained by a candidate, namely, the Majority Effect and the Media Effect. We mimic these two effects in a…

How often will elections end in landslides? What is the probability for a head-to-head race? Analyzing ballot results from several large countries rather anomalous and yet unexplained distributions have been observed. We identify tactical…

The spatial panel regression model has shown great success in modelling econometric and other types of data that are observed both spatially and temporally with associated predictor variables. However, model checking via testing for spatial…

In social processes, long-term trends can be influenced or disrupted by various factors, including public policy. When public policies depend on a misrepresentation of trends in the areas they are aimed at, they become random and…

For the last few years, the amount of data has significantly increased in the companies. It is the reason why data analysis methods have to evolve to meet new demands. In this article, we introduce a practical analysis of a large database…

Election results are determined by numerous social factors that affect the formation of opinion of the voters, including the network of interactions between them and the dynamics of opinion influence. In this work we study the result of…

We present an analysis of the dynamics of discussions in Twitter (before it became X) among supporters of various candidates in the 2022 French presidential election, and followers of different types of media. Our study demonstrates that we…

Ecologists and economists try to explain collective behavior in terms of competitive systems of selfish individuals with the ability to learn from the past. Statistical physicists have been investigating models which might contribute to the…

Influence among individuals is at the core of collective social phenomena such as the dissemination of ideas, beliefs or behaviors, social learning and the diffusion of innovations. Different mechanisms have been proposed to implement…

The study of the dynamics of the size of a population via mathematical modelling is a problem of interest and widely studied. Traditionally, continuous deterministic methods based on differential equations have been used to deal with this…

Seeking to determine which working patterns have a specific effect on part-time work, in 1998-99 France's INSEE statistical agency carried out a Timetable survey that questioned the homogeneity of this form of employment (again in terms of…