相关论文: Scaling property and opinion model for interevent …

In this paper I propose a 'mechanism' for the explanation of power-law characteristics of casualty dynamics in inter-state wars, intra-state wars and terrorist attacks: the scale-free physical organization of social systems. Other…

Traditional analyses of international terrorism have not sought to explain the emergence of rare but extremely severe events. Using the tools of extremal statistics to analyze the set of terrorist attacks worldwide between 1968 and 2004, as…

Spatio-temporal hierarchical modeling is an extremely attractive way to model the spread of crime or terrorism data over a given region, especially when the observations are counts and must be modeled discretely. The spatio-temporal…

Many natural phenomena exhibit power law behaviour in the distribution of event size. This scaling is successfully reproduced by Self Organized Criticality (SOC). On the other hand, temporal occurrence in SOC models has a Poisson-like…

A predictive model of terrorist activity is developed by examining the daily number of terrorist attacks in Indonesia from 1994 through 2007. The dynamic model employs a shot noise process to explain the self-exciting nature of the…

We propose a computational framework for modeling opinion dynamics in electoral competitions that combines two realistic features: voter memory and exogenous shocks. The population is represented by a fully-connected network of agents, each…

We propose a discrete model for how opinion about a given phenomenon, about which various groups of a population have different degrees of enthusiasm, such as fanaticism and extreme social and political positions, including terrorism, may…

Extreme events with potential deadly outcomes, such as those organized by terror groups, are highly unpredictable in nature and an imminent threat to society. In particular, quantifying the likelihood of a terror attack occurring in an…

We present a toy model of opinion spreading in a society which combines a self-reinforcing mechanism with diffusion. The relative strength of these two mechanisms - called the affectability of the system - is a free parameter of the model.…

We identify robust statistical patterns in the frequency and severity of violent attacks by terrorist organizations as they grow and age. Using group-level static and dynamic analyses of terrorist events worldwide from 1968-2008 and a…

In the spirit of Richardson's original (1948) study of the statistics of deadly conflicts, we study the frequency and severity of terrorist attacks worldwide since 1968. We show that these events are uniformly characterized by the…

The dynamics based on information transfer is proposed as an underlying mechanism for the scale-invariant dynamic critical behavior observed in a variety of systems. We apply the dynamics to the globally-coupled Ising model, which is…

Terrorist organizations change over time because of processes such as recruitment and training as well as counter-terrorism (CT) measures, but the effects of these processes are typically studied qualitatively and in separation from each…

I present a unified discussion of several recently published results concerning the escalation, timing and severity of violent events in human conflicts and global terrorism, and set them in the wider context of real-world and cyber-based…

The rapid spread of radical ideologies in recent years has led to a worldwide string of terrorist attacks. Understanding how extremist tendencies germinate, develop, and drive individuals to action is important from a cultural standpoint,…

We investigate the impact of an exogenous environment on the emergence of social herding of economic sentiment. An interactions-driven dynamics of economic sentiment is modeled by an Ising model on a large (two-dimensional) square lattice.…

In this paper, we have initiated an attempt to develop and understand the driving mechanisms that underlie fourth-generation warfare. We have undertaken this from a perspective of endeavoring to understand the drivers of these events from a…

The formation of network structure is mainly influenced by an individual node's activity and its memory, where activity can usually be interpreted as the individual inherent property and memory can be represented by the interaction strength…

Temporal inhomogeneities observed in various natural and social phenomena have often been characterized in terms of scaling behaviors in the autocorrelation function with a decaying exponent $\gamma$, the interevent time distribution with a…

We empirically study the activity patterns of individual blog-posting and find significant memory effects. The memory coefficient first decays in a power law and then turns to an exponential form. Moreover, the inter-event time distribution…