相关论文: The formal definition of reference priors

In this paper, we consider objective Bayesian inference of the generalized exponential distribution using the independence Jeffreys prior and validate the propriety of the posterior distribution under a family of structured priors. We…

Bayesian inference provides a uniquely rigorous approach to obtain principled justification for uncertainty in predictions, yet it is difficult to articulate suitably general prior belief in the machine learning context, where computational…

Constraints are a natural choice for prior information in Bayesian inference. In various applications, the parameters of interest lie on the boundary of the constraint set. In this paper, we use a method that implicitly defines a…

Total probability and Bayes formula are two basic tools for using prior information in the Bayesian statistics. In this paper we introduce an alternative tool for using prior information. This new toold enables us to improve some…

Since the idea of fiducial inference was put forward by Fisher, researchers have been attempting to place it within a rigorous and well motivated framework. It is fair to say that a general definition has remained elusive. In this paper we…

We marshall the arguments for preferring Bayesian hypothesis testing and confidence sets to frequentist ones. We define admissible solutions to inference problems, noting that Bayesian solutions are admissible. We give seven weaker…

We study the stability of posterior predictive inferences to the specification of the likelihood model and perturbations of the data generating process. In modern big data analyses, useful broad structural judgements may be elicited from…

In causal inference, sensitivity analysis is important to assess the robustness of study conclusions to key assumptions. We perform sensitivity analysis of the assumption that missing outcomes are missing completely at random. We follow a…

We develop a Bayesian approach for selecting the model which is the most supported by the data within a class of marginal models for categorical variables formulated through equality and/or inequality constraints on generalised logits…

This paper explores Bayesian estimation for categorical data, focusing on simple yet effective models that provide a foundation for applying more advanced methods accurately and reliably in real-world applications. We begin by revisiting…

Uncertainty quantification is central to many applications of causal machine learning, yet principled Bayesian inference for causal effects remains challenging. Standard Bayesian approaches typically require specifying a probabilistic model…

When prior information is lacking, the go-to strategy for probabilistic inference is to combine a "default prior" and the likelihood via Bayes's theorem. Objective Bayes, (generalized) fiducial inference, etc. fall under this umbrella. This…

The ongoing unprecedented exponential explosion of available computing power, has radically transformed the methods of statistical inference. What used to be a small minority of statisticians advocating for the use of priors and a strict…

The notion of confidence distributions is applied to inference about the parameter in a simple autoregressive model, allowing the parameter to take the value one. This makes it possible to compare to asymptotic approximations in both the…

This paper considers the problem of making statistical inferences about a parameter when a narrow interval centred at a given value of the parameter is considered special, which is interpreted as meaning that there is a substantial degree…

In this paper, we are concerned with attributing meaning to the results of a Bayesian analysis for a problem which is sufficiently complex that we are unable to assert a precise correspondence between the expert probabilistic judgements of…

We propose a way to construct fiducial distributions for a multidimensional parameter using a step-by-step conditional procedure related to the inferential importance of the components of the parameter. For discrete models, in which the…

In this paper we propose an objective Bayesian estimation approach for the parameters of the generalized gamma distribution. Various reference priors are obtained, but showing that they lead to improper posterior distributions. We overcome…

In two recent papers, I have proposed a description of decision analysis that differs from the Bayesian picture painted by Savage, Jeffrey and other classic authors. Response to this view has been either overly enthusiastic or unduly…

Prior distributions elicited for modelling the natural fluctuations or the uncertainty on parameters of Bayesian fishery population models, can be chosen among a vast range of statistical laws. Since the statistical framework is defined by…