相关论文: A generalized aggregation-disintegration model for…
We develop flexible multivariate spatio-temporal Hawkes process models to analyze patterns of terrorism. Previous applications of point process methods to political violence data mainly utilize temporal Hawkes process models, neglecting…
The study of interdependent networks, and in particular the robustness on networks, has attracted considerable attention. Recent studies mainly assume that the dependence is fully interdependent. However, targeted attack for partially…
In this work we study a simple mathematical model to analyze the emergence and control of radicalization phenomena. The population consisits of core and sensitive subpopulations, and their ways of life may be at least partially…
This paper presents the foundational ideas for a new way of modeling social aggregation. Traditional approaches have been using network theory, and the theory of random networks. Under that paradigm, every social agent is represented by a…
A statistical model of fragmentation of aggregates is proposed, based on the stochastic propagation of cracks through the body. The propagation rules are formulated on a lattice and mimic two important features of the process -- a crack…
Activities of terrorist groups present a serious threat to the security and well-being of the general public. Counterterrorism authorities aim to identify and frustrate the plans of terrorist groups before they are put into action. Whilst…
Machine Learning models have been shown to be vulnerable to adversarial examples, ie. the manipulation of data by a attacker to defeat a defender's classifier at test time. We present a novel probabilistic definition of adversarial examples…
The structure and the properties of complex networks essentially depend on the way how nodes get connected to each other. We assume here that each node has a feature which attracts the others. We model the situation by assigning two numbers…
To this day, terrorism persists as a worldwide threat, as exemplified by the ongoing lethal attacks perpetrated by ISIS in Iraq, Syria, Al Qaeda in Yemen, and Boko Haram in Nigeria. In response, states deploy various counterterrorism…
For a reliable prediction of an epidemic or information spreading pattern in complex systems, well-defined measures are essential. In the susceptible-infected model on heterogeneous networks, the cluster of infected nodes in the…
Power law cumulative frequency $(P)$ vs. event size $(l)$ distributions $P(\geq l)\sim l^{-\alpha}$ are frequently cited as evidence for complexity and serve as a starting point for linking theoretical models and mechanisms with observed…
In biomedical settings, multitype recurrent events such as stroke and heart failure occur frequently, often concluding with a terminal event such as death. Understanding the links between these recurring and terminal events is fundamental…
A common approach for modeling extremes, such as peak flow or high temperatures, is the three-parameter Generalized Extreme-Value distribution. This is typically fit to extreme observations, here defined as maxima over disjoint blocks. This…
Complexity science affords a number of novel tools for examining terrorism, particularly network analysis and NK-Boolean fitness landscapes. The following paper explores various aspects of terrorist networks which can be illuminated through…
Terrorist attacks all across the world have become a major source of concern for almost all national governments. The United States Department of State's Bureau of Counter-Terrorism, maintains a list of 66 terrorist organizations spanning…
We model the spreading of a crisis by constructing a global economic network and applying the Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) epidemic model with a variable probability of infection. The probability of infection depends on the strength…
After a failure or attack the structure of a complex network changes due to node removal. Here, we show that the degree distribution of the distorted network, under any node disturbances, can be easily computed through a simple formula.…
Current statistical channel models for Terahertz (THz) wireless communication primarily concentrate on the sub-THz band, mostly with $\alpha$-$\mu$ and Gaussian mixture fading distributions for short-term fading and deterministic modeling…
Although adverse effects of attacks have been acknowledged in many cyber-physical systems, there is no system-theoretic comprehension of how a compromised agent can leverage communication capabilities to maximize the damage in distributed…
Even before 9/11 there were claims that the nature of war had changed fundamentally. The 9/11 attacks created an urgent need to understand contemporary wars and their relationship to older conventional and terrorist wars, both of which…