相关论文: Estimation of missing data by using the filtering …

We consider the problem of inferring a causality structure from multiple binary time series by using the Kinetic Ising Model in datasets where a fraction of observations is missing. We take our steps from a recent work on Mean Field methods…

Signal data often contains missing values. Effective replacement (imputation) of the missing values can have significant positive effects on processing the signal. In this paper, we compare three commonly employed methods for estimating…

While the formulation of most data assimilation schemes assumes an unbiased observation model error, in real applications, model error with nontrivial biases is unavoidable. A practical example is the error in the radiative transfer model…

Predicting with missing inputs challenges even parametric models, as parameter estimation alone is insufficient for prediction on incomplete data. While several works study prediction in linear models, we focus on logistic models, where…

Despite the necessity for accurate flood prediction, many regions lack sufficient river discharge observations. Although numerous models for daily river discharge prediction exist, achieving high accuracy, interpretability, and efficiency…

The statistical challenges in using big data for making valid statistical inference in the finite population have been well documented in literature. These challenges are due primarily to statistical bias arising from under-coverage in the…

Joint models of longitudinal and event-time data have been extensively studied and applied in many different fields. Estimation of joint models is challenging, most present procedures are computational expensive and have a strict…

We develop a time series model to forecast weekly peak power demand for three main states of Australia for a yearly time-scale, and show the crucial role of environmental factors in improving the forecasts. More precisely, we construct a…

In order to reach the supply/demand balance, electricity providers need to predict the demand and production of electricity at different time scales. This implies the need of modeling weather variables such as temperature, wind speed, solar…

With extreme weather events becoming more common, the risk posed by surface water flooding is ever increasing. In this work we propose a model, and associated Bayesian inference scheme, for generating probabilistic (high-resolution…

In this paper, the complexities in the relationship between rainfall and sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies during the winter monsoon (November-January) over India were evaluated statistically using scatter plot matrices and…

We applied a variety of parametric and non-parametric machine learning models to predict the probability distribution of rainfall based on 1M training examples over a single year across several U.S. states. Our top performing model based on…

A recursive state estimation procedure is derived for a linear time varying system with both parametric uncertainties and stochastic measurement droppings. This estimator has a similar form as that of the Kalman filter with intermittent…

Likelihood-based estimation methods involve the normalising constant of the model distributions, expressed as a function of the parameter. However in many problems this function is not easily available, and then less efficient but more…

Existing approaches to model uncertainty typically either compare models using a quantitative model selection criterion or evaluate posterior model probabilities having set a prior. In this paper, we propose an alternative strategy which…

Advances in artificial intelligence (AI) and deep learning have led to neural networks being used to generate lightning-speed answers to complex science questions, paintings in the style of Monet, or stories like those of Twain. Leveraging…

Spatial two-component mixture models offer a robust framework for analyzing spatially correlated data with zero inflation. To circumvent potential biases introduced by assuming a specific distribution for the response variables, we employ a…

Missing data theory deals with the statistical methods in the occurrence of missing data. Missing data occurs when some values are not stored or observed for variables of interest. However, most of the statistical theory assumes that data…

Rainfall prediction remains a persistent challenge due to the highly nonlinear and complex nature of meteorological data. Existing approaches lack systematic utilization of grid search for optimal hyperparameter tuning, relying instead on…

Performance estimation aims at estimating the loss that a predictive model will incur on unseen data. These procedures are part of the pipeline in every machine learning project and are used for assessing the overall generalisation ability…