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Remote sensors are becoming the standard for observing and recording ecological data in the field. Such sensors can record data at fine temporal resolutions, and they can operate under extreme conditions prohibitive to human access.…

Pattern-mixture models provide a transparent approach for handling missing data, where the full-data distribution is factorized in a way that explicitly shows the parts that can be estimated from observed data alone, and the parts that…

Forecasting can estimate the statement of events according to the historical data and it is considerably important in many disciplines. At present, time series models have been utilized to solve forecasting problems in various domains. In…

Predictive uncertainty in hydrological modelling is quantified by using post-processing or Bayesian-based methods. The former methods are not straightforward and the latter ones are not distribution-free (i.e. assumptions on the probability…

Large-scale traffic forecasting relies on fixed sensor networks that often exhibit blackouts: contiguous intervals of missing measurements caused by detector or communication failures. These outages are typically handled under a Missing At…

The class of autoregressive (AR) processes is extensively used to model temporal dependence in observed time series. Such models are easily available and routinely fitted using freely available statistical software like R. A potential…

Boosting has emerged as a useful machine learning technique over the past three decades, attracting increased attention. Most advancements in this area, however, have primarily focused on numerical implementation procedures, often lacking…

The prevalence of missing values in data science poses a substantial risk to any further analyses. Despite a wealth of research, principled nonparametric methods to deal with general non-monotone missingness are still scarce. Instead,…

Missing data is a challenge in many applications, including intelligent transportation systems (ITS). In this paper, we study traffic speed and travel time estimations in ITS, where portions of the collected data are missing due to sensor…

In this work, we consider the class of multi-state autoregressive processes that can be used to model non-stationary time-series of interest. In order to capture different autoregressive (AR) states underlying an observed time series, it is…

Traffic flow forecasting is hot spot research of intelligent traffic system construction. The existing traffic flow prediction methods have problems such as poor stability, high data requirements, or poor adaptability. In this paper, we…

Data assimilation provides algorithms for widespread applications in various fields. It is of practical use to deal with a large amount of information in the complex system that is hard to estimate. Weather forecasting is one of the…

Although by now the ensemble-based probabilistic forecasting is the most advanced approach to weather prediction, ensemble forecasts still might suffer from lack of calibration and/or display systematic bias, thus require some…

Aiming to estimate extreme precipitation forecast quantiles, we propose a nonparametric regression model that features a constant extreme value index. Using local linear quantile regression and an extrapolation technique from extreme value…

This paper proposes a model-free nonparametric estimator of conditional quantile of a time series regression model where the covariate vector is repeated many times for different values of the response. This type of data is abound in…

We formulate a statistical flight-pause model for human mobility, represented by a collection of random objects, called motions, appropriate for mobile phone tracking (MPT) data. We develop the statistical machinery for parameter inference…

Dynamic factor models are often estimated by point-estimation methods, disregarding parameter uncertainty. We propose a method accounting for parameter uncertainty by means of posterior approximation, using variational inference. Our…

Zero inflation is a common nuisance while monitoring disease progression over time. This article proposes a new observation driven model for zero inflated and over-dispersed count time series. The counts given the past history of the…

We propose to learn latent graphical models when data have mixed variables and missing values. This model could be used for further data analysis, including regression, classification, ranking etc. It also could be used for imputing missing…

This paper describes a compound Poisson-based random effects structure for modeling zero-inflated data. Data with large proportion of zeros are found in many fields of applied statistics, for example in ecology when trying to model and…