相关论文: Exact prediction of S&P 500 returns

Markets are subjected to both endogenous and exogenous risks that have caused disruptions to financial and economic markets around the globe, leading eventually to fast stock market declines. In the past, markets have recovered after any…

The personal income distribution (PID) above the Pareto threshold is studied and modeled. A microeconomic model is proposed to simulate the PID and its evolution below and above the Pareto income threshold. The model balances processes of…

In this paper, we compare various approaches to stock price prediction using neural networks. We analyze the performance fully connected, convolutional, and recurrent architectures in predicting the next day value of S&P 500 index based on…

Standard quantitative models of the stock market predict a log-normal distribution for stock returns (Bachelier 1900, Osborne 1959), but it is recognised (Fama 1965) that empirical data, in comparison with a Gaussian, exhibit leptokurtosis…

This study explores the relationship between R&D intensity, as a measure of innovation, and financial performance among S&P 500 companies over 100 quarters from 1998 to 2023, including multiple crisis periods. It challenges the conventional…

In this paper, we perform a comparative segmentation and clustering analysis of the time series for the ten Dow Jones US economic sector indices between 14 February 2000 and 31 August 2008. From the temporal distributions of clustered…

Predicting the S&P 500 index volatility is crucial for investors and financial analysts as it helps assess market risk and make informed investment decisions. Volatility represents the level of uncertainty or risk related to the size of…

Counterintuitively, the S&P 500 Index rose between January 1, 2022, and December 29, 2023, while exchange-traded funds (ETFs) seeking to deliver 2x and 3x daily returns of the index delivered substantially negative returns. Roughly…

A phenomenon of the financial log-periodicity is discussed and the characteristics that amplify its predictive potential are elaborated. The principal one is self-similarity that obeys across all the time scales. Furthermore the same…

To reject the Efficient Market Hypothesis a set of 5 technical indicators and 23 fundamental indicators was identified to establish the possibility of generating excess returns on the stock market. Leveraging these data points and various…

Empirical evidence is given for a significant difference in the collective trend of the share prices during the stock index rising and falling periods. Data on the Dow Jones Industrial Average and its stock components are studied between…

Since the beginning of the new millennium, stock markets went through every state from long-time troughs, trade suspensions to all-time highs. The literature on asset pricing hence assumes random processes to be underlying the movement of…

We present a quantitative characterisation of the fluctuations of the annualized growth rate of the real US GDP per capita growth at many scales, using a wavelet transform analysis of two data sets, quarterly data from 1947 to 2015 and…

This paper is part of the Global Income Dynamics Project cross-country comparison of earnings inequality, volatility, and mobility. Using data from the U.S. Census Bureau's Longitudinal Employer-Household Dynamics (LEHD) infrastructure…

In Aarab (2020), I examine U.S. stock return predictability across economic regimes and document evidence of time-varying expected returns across market states in the long run. The analysis introduces a state-switching specification in…

Over the past 60 years, there has been a gradual increase in the volatility of daily returns for the S&P 500 Index. Hypothetically, suppose that market forces determine daily volatility such that a daily leveraged S&P 500 fund cannot…

Detailed estimates of migration stocks and flows provides evidence for understanding population dynamics, and the impact of economic and political changes that influence migration. Using data from the 2000 decennial census and 2001-2016…

Economists disagree about the factors driving the substantial increase in residual wage inequality in the US over the past few decades. To identify changes in the returns to unobserved skills, we make a novel assumption about the dynamics…

The growth rate of real GDP per capita in the biggest OECD countries is represented as a sum of two components - a steadily decreasing trend and fluctuations related to the change in some specific age population. The long term trend in the…

We present a self-consistent model for explosive financial bubbles, which combines a mean-reverting volatility process and a stochastic conditional return which reflects nonlinear positive feedbacks and continuous updates of the investors'…