相关论文: A regional Bayesian POT model for flood frequency …

We propose a new method to test the effectiveness of a spatial point process forecast based on a log-likelihood score for predicted point density and the information gain for events that actually occurred in the test period. The method…

In this paper, we address the fundamental problem of line spectral estimation in a Bayesian framework. We target model order and parameter estimation via variational inference in a probabilistic model in which the frequencies are…

Model-form uncertainties in complex mechanics systems are a major obstacle for predictive simulations. Reducing these uncertainties is critical for stake-holders to make risk-informed decisions based on numerical simulations. For example,…

With the deterioration of climate, the phenomenon of rain-induced flooding has become frequent. To mitigate its impact, recent works adopt convolutional neural network or its variants to predict the floods. However, these methods directly…

Regional watersheds are complex systems of systems encompassing hydrology, land-use decision-making, estuarine ecological feedbacks, and overlapping governance jurisdictions. Their effective management underlies many modern societal…

This paper explores Bayesian estimation for categorical data, focusing on simple yet effective models that provide a foundation for applying more advanced methods accurately and reliably in real-world applications. We begin by revisiting…

This paper constructs individual-specific density forecasts for a panel of firms or households using a dynamic linear model with common and heterogeneous coefficients as well as cross-sectional heteroskedasticity. The panel considered in…

Traffic flow count data in networks arise in many applications, such as automobile or aviation transportation, certain directed social network contexts, and Internet studies. Using an example of Internet browser traffic flow through…

We study adaptive pooling under predictive heterogeneity in high-dimensional multivariate time series forecasting, where global models improve statistical efficiency but may fail to capture heterogeneous predictive structure, while naive…

In light of intense hurricane activity along the U.S. Atlantic coast, attention has turned to understanding both the economic impact and behaviour of these storms. The compound Poisson-lognormal process has been proposed as a model for…

Accurate estimates of subnational health and demographic indicators are critical for informing health policy decisions. Many countries collect relevant data using complex household surveys, but when data are limited, direct survey weighted…

Data-driven risk analysis involves the inference of probability distributions from measured or simulated data. In the case of a highly reliable system, such as the electricity grid, the amount of relevant data is often exceedingly limited,…

Identification of regions affected by floods is a crucial piece of information required for better planning and management of post-disaster relief and rescue efforts. Traditionally, remote sensing images are analysed to identify the extent…

Statistical methods are proposed to select homogeneous locations when analyzing spatial block maxima data, such as in extreme event attribution studies. The methods are based on classical hypothesis testing using Wald-type test statistics,…

Coastal flooding drives considerable risks to many communities, but projections of future flood risks are deeply uncertain. The paucity of observations of extreme events often motivates the use of statistical approaches to model the…

Gaussian processes (GPs) are a well-known nonparametric Bayesian inference technique, but they suffer from scalability problems for large sample sizes, and their performance can degrade for non-stationary or spatially heterogeneous data. In…

Monitoring water stage and discharge at hydrometric stations is essential for flood characterization and prediction. Continuous measurement is feasible for stage records, whereas discharge must be calculated, typically using a rating curve.…

Post-earthquake hazard and impact estimation are critical for effective disaster response, yet current approaches face significant limitations. Traditional models employ fixed parameters regardless of geographical context, misrepresenting…

Predictive uncertainty in hydrological modelling is quantified by using post-processing or Bayesian-based methods. The former methods are not straightforward and the latter ones are not distribution-free (i.e. assumptions on the probability…

Floods are highly uncertain events, occurring in different regions, with varying prerequisites and intensities. A highly reliable flood disaster risk map can help reduce the impact of floods for flood management, disaster decreasing, and…