相关论文: A regional Bayesian POT model for flood frequency …

Bayesian hierarchical models are a methodology for aggregation and synthesis of data from heterogeneous settings, used widely in statistics and other disciplines. I apply this framework to the evidence from 7 randomized experiments of…

Motivated by the goal of improving the efficiency of small sample design, we propose a novel Bayesian stochastic approximation method to estimate the root of a regression function. The method features adaptive local modelling and…

Surrogate models are often used to replace costly-to-evaluate complex coastal codes to achieve substantial computational savings. In many of those models, the hydrometeorological forcing conditions (inputs) or flood events (outputs) are…

This paper presents a Bayesian multilevel modeling approach for estimating well-level oil and gas production capacities across small geographic areas over multiple time periods. Focusing on a basin, which is a geologically and economically…

The most common approach to implementing data analysis pipelines involves obtaining point estimates from the upstream modules and then treating these as known quantities when working with the downstream ones. This approach is…

In this article, we consider the problem of estimating the parameters of the Fr\'echet distribution from both frequentist and Bayesian points of view. First we briefly describe different frequentist approaches, namely, maximum likelihood,…

How to estimate heterogeneity, e.g. the effect of some variable differing across observations, is a key question in political science. Methods for doing so make simplifying assumptions about the underlying nature of the heterogeneity to…

A Bayesian approach is developed to analyze change points in multivariate time series and space-time data. The methodology is used to assess the impact of extended inundation on the ecosystem of the Gulf Plains bioregion in northern…

The problem of estimating return levels of river discharge, relevant in flood frequency analysis, is tackled by relying on the extreme value theory. The Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution is assumed to model annual maxima values…

Normalizing flows provide an elegant approach to generative modeling that allows for efficient sampling and exact density evaluation of unknown data distributions. However, current techniques have significant limitations in their…

Estimating the expectation of a real-valued function of a random variable from sample data is a critical aspect of statistical analysis, with far-reaching implications in various applications. Current methodologies typically assume…

Computing the marginal likelihood (also called the Bayesian model evidence) is an important task in Bayesian model selection, providing a principled quantitative way to compare models. The learned harmonic mean estimator solves the…

Flood prediction is critical for emergency planning and response to mitigate human and economic losses. Traditional physics-based hydrodynamic models generate high-resolution flood maps using numerical methods requiring fine-grid…

Flood risk is correlated in space and time, challenging insurance systems that rely on diversification across assets. Financial instruments governing flood coverage are typically structured as 1 to 5-year contracts, exposing portfolios to…

Flood simulation and forecast capability have been greatly improved thanks to advances in data assimilation. Such an approach combines in-situ gauge measurements with numerical hydrodynamic models to correct the hydraulic states and reduce…

Effective riverine flood forecasting at scale is hindered by a multitude of factors, most notably the need to rely on human calibration in current methodology, the limited amount of data for a specific location, and the computational…

In an era of escalating climate change, urban flooding has emerged as a critical challenge for sustainable cities, threatening lives, infrastructure, and ecosystems. Traditional flood detection methods are constrained by their reliance on…

Previous likelihood-based linear modeling of nutritional data has been limited by the availability of software that allows flexible error structures in the data. We demonstrate the use of a Bayesian modeling approach to the analysis of such…

Regionalization methods have long been used to estimate high return levels of river discharges at ungauged locations on a river network. In these methods, the recorded discharge measurements of a group of similar, gauged, stations is used…

We derive an exact and efficient Bayesian regression algorithm for piecewise constant functions of unknown segment number, boundary location, and levels. It works for any noise and segment level prior, e.g. Cauchy which can handle outliers.…