相关论文: Models for dependent extremes using stable mixture…

Extreme values of real phenomena are events that occur with low frequency, but can have a large impact on real life. These are, in many practical problems, high-dimensional by nature (e.g. Tawn, 1990; Coles and Tawn, 1991). To study these…

This paper deals with the extreme value analysis for the triangular arrays, which appear when some parameters of the mixture model vary as the number of observations grow. When the mixing parameter is small, it is natural to associate one…

Attaining ultra-reliable communication (URC) in fifth-generation (5G) and beyond networks requires deriving statistics of channel in ultra-reliable region by modeling the extreme events. Extreme value theory (EVT) has been previously…

Modelling dependencies between climate extremes is important for climate risk assessment, for instance when allocating emergency management funds. In statistics, multivariate extreme value theory is often used to model spatial extremes.…

Being the limits of copulas of componentwise maxima in independent random samples, extreme-value copulas can be considered to provide appropriate models for the dependence structure between rare events. Extreme-value copulas not only arise…

We introduce the concept of geometric extremal graphical models, which are defined through the gauge function of the limit set obtained from suitably scaled random vectors in light-tailed margins. For block graphs, we prove results relating…

Although the fundamental probabilistic theory of extremes has been well developed, there are many practical considerations that must be addressed in application. The contribution of this thesis is four-fold. The first concerns the choice of…

Time Series Forecasting (TSF) is a widely researched topic with broad applications in weather forecasting, traffic control, and stock price prediction. Extreme values in time series often significantly impact human and natural systems, but…

There is substantial empirical and climatological evidence that precipitation extremes have become more extreme during the twentieth century, and that this trend is likely to continue as global warming becomes more intense. However,…

A baroclinic model for the atmospheric jet at middle-latitudes is used as a stochastic generator of time series of the total energy of the system. Statistical inference of extreme values is applied to yearly maxima sequences of the time…

Conditional extreme value models have been introduced by Heffernan and Resnick (2007) to describe the asymptotic behavior of a random vector as one specific component becomes extreme. Obviously, this class of models is related to classical…

A sequence of random variables is exchangeable if its joint distribution is invariant under variable permutations. We introduce exchangeable variable models (EVMs) as a novel class of probabilistic models whose basic building blocks are…

The possibilities of the use of the coefficient of variation over a high threshold in tail modelling are discussed. The paper also considers multiple threshold tests for a generalized Pareto distribution, together with a threshold selection…

The coarse spatial resolution of gridded climate models, such as general circulation models, limits their direct use in projecting socially relevant variables like extreme precipitation. Most downscaling methods estimate the conditional…

nsEVDx is an open-source Python package for fitting stationary and nonstationary Extreme Value Distributions (EVDs) to extreme value data. It can be used to model extreme events in fields like hydrology, climate science, finance, and…

Conventional methods for extreme event estimation rely on well-chosen parametric models asymptotically justified from extreme value theory (EVT). These methods, while powerful and theoretically grounded, could however encounter a difficult…

The purpose of this paper is to illustrate new techniques for computing multiday extreme precipitation taken from recent theoretical advancements in extreme value theory in the framework of dynamical systems, using historical precipitation…

Extreme value theory for univariate and low-dimensional observations has been explored in considerable detail, but the field is still in an early stage regarding high-dimensional settings. This paper focuses on H\"usler-Reiss models, a…

Currently available models for spatial extremes suffer either from inflexibility in the dependence structures that they can capture, lack of scalability to high dimensions, or in most cases, both of these. We present an approach to spatial…

We use extreme value theory to estimate the probability of successive exceedances of a threshold value of a time-series of an observable on several classes of chaotic dynamical systems. The observables have either a Fr\'echet (fat-tailed)…