相关论文: Prediction for discrete time series

We consider continuous-time Markov chains on integers which allow transitions to adjacent states only, with alternating rates. We give explicit formulas for probability generating functions, and also for means, variances and state…

We consider a stationary Markov process that models certain queues with a bulk service of a fixed number $m$ of admitted customers. We find an integral expression of its transition probability function in terms of certain multi-orthogonal…

We study the problem of finding an universal estimation scheme $h_n:\mathbb{R}^n\to \mathbb{R}$, $n=1,2,...$ which will satisfy \lim_{t\rightarrow\infty}{\frac{1}{t}}\sum_{i=1}^t|h_ i(X_0,X_1,...,X_{i-1})-E(X_i|X_0,X_1,...,X_{i-1})|^p=0…

Predictability of behavior has emerged an an important characteristic in many fields including biology, medicine, and marketing. Behavior can be recorded as a sequence of actions performed by an individual over a given time period. This…

The aim of the paper is to understand how the inclusion of more and more time-scales into a stochastic stationary Markovian process affects its conditional probability. To this end, we consider two Gaussian processes: (i) a short-range…

Via operator theoretic methods, we formalize the concentration phenomenon for a given observable `$r$' of a discrete time Markov chain with `$\mu_{\pi}$' as invariant ergodic measure, possibly having support on an unbounded state space. The…

We propose a random adaptation variant of time-varying distributed averaging dynamics in discrete time. We show that this leads to novel interpretations of fundamental concepts in distributed averaging, opinion dynamics, and distributed…

We consider ergodic backward stochastic differential equations in a discrete time setting, where noise is generated by a finite state Markov chain. We show existence and uniqueness of solutions, along with a comparison theorem. To obtain…

Using statistical thermodynamics, we derive a general expression of the stationary probability distribution for thermodynamic systems driven out of equilibrium by several thermodynamic forces. The local equilibrium is defined by imposing…

In this paper we survey the almost sure central limit theorem and its functional form (quenched) for stationary and ergodic processes. For additive functionals of a stationary and ergodic Markov chain these theorems are known under the…

We present a probabilistic model for stochastic iterative algorithms with the use case of optimization algorithms in mind. Based on this model, we present PAC-Bayesian generalization bounds for functions that are defined on the trajectory…

We study the limit behaviour of upper and lower bounds on expected time averages in imprecise Markov chains; a generalised type of Markov chain where the local dynamics, traditionally characterised by transition probabilities, are now…

The class of nonlinear Markov processes is characterized by the dependence of the current state of the process on its current distribution in addition to the dependence on the previous state. Due to this feature, these processes are…

We prove a complete class theorem that characterizes \emph{all} stationary time reversible Markov processes whose finite dimensional marginal distributions (of all orders) are infinitely divisible. Aside from two degenerate cases (iid and…

Probabilistic timed automata are classical timed automata extended with discrete probability distributions over edges. We introduce clock-dependent probabilistic timed automata, a variant of probabilistic timed automata in which transition…

We study the N-step binary stationary ergodic Markov chain and analyze its differential entropy. Supposing that the correlations are weak we express the conditional probability function of the chain through the pair correlation function and…

We construct multiperiodic processes -- a simple example of stationary ergodic (but not mixing) processes over natural numbers that enjoy the vanishing entropy rate under a mild condition. Multiperiodic processes are supported on randomly…

We consider prediction theory for stationary stochastic processes in continuous time. We discuss prediction using the whole (infinite) past, and using only a finite section of the past. The solutions to both these classical problems have…

We consider the problem of estimating the transition rate matrix of a continuous-time Markov chain from a finite-duration realisation of this process. We approach this problem in an imprecise probabilistic framework, using a set of prior…

Consider a discrete time, ergodic Markov chain with finite state space which is started from stationarity. Fill and Lyzinski (2014) showed that, in some cases, the hitting time for a given state may be represented as a sum of a geometric…