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It has become increasingly easy nowadays to collect approximate posterior samples via fast algorithms such as variational Bayes, but concerns exist about the estimation accuracy. It is tempting to build solutions that exploit approximate…

统计计算 · 统计学 2024-06-17 Leo L. Duan , Anirban Bhattacharya

We consider Monte Carlo approximations to the maximum likelihood estimator in models with intractable norming constants. This paper deals with adaptive Monte Carlo algorithms, which adjust control parameters in the course of simulation. We…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2016-12-08 Blazej Miasojedow , Wojciech Niemiro , Jan Palczewski , Wojciech Rejchel

We elaborate the idea behind Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods in a mathematically coherent, yet simple and understandable way. To this end, we proof a pivotal convergence theorem for finite Markov chains and a minimal version of the…

统计理论 · 数学 2019-07-30 Tobias Siems

Sequential Monte Carlo methods which involve sequential importance sampling and resampling are shown to provide a versatile approach to computing probabilities of rare events. By making use of martingale representations of the sequential…

概率论 · 数学 2012-02-22 Hock Peng Chan , Tze Leung Lai

Recent developments in big data and analytics research have produced an abundance of large data sets that are too big to be analyzed in their entirety, due to limits on computer memory or storage capacity. To address these issues,…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2016-01-06 Alexey Miroshnikov , Erin M. Conlon

This paper presents a new model called infinite mixtures of multivariate Gaussian processes, which can be used to learn vector-valued functions and applied to multitask learning. As an extension of the single multivariate Gaussian process,…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2013-07-29 Shiliang Sun

Sampling from a lattice Gaussian distribution is emerging as an important problem in various areas such as coding and cryptography. The default sampling algorithm --- Klein's algorithm yields a distribution close to the lattice Gaussian…

信息论 · 计算机科学 2016-11-18 Zheng Wang , Cong Ling , Guillaume Hanrot

In many hierarchical inverse problems, not only do we want to estimate high- or infinite-dimensional model parameters in the parameter-to-observable maps, but we also have to estimate hyperparameters that represent critical assumptions in…

统计计算 · 统计学 2020-02-18 Johnathan Bardsley , Tiangang Cui

This paper presents a Markov chain Monte Carlo method to generate approximate posterior samples in retrospective multiple changepoint problems where the number of changes is not known in advance. The method uses conjugate models whereby the…

统计计算 · 统计学 2010-11-15 Jason Wyse , Nial Friel

This paper introduces a class of Monte Carlo algorithms which are based upon the simulation of a Markov process whose quasi-stationary distribution coincides with a distribution of interest. This differs fundamentally from, say, current…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2020-04-14 Murray Pollock , Paul Fearnhead , Adam M. Johansen , Gareth O. Roberts

High-dimensional data are routinely collected in many areas. We are particularly interested in Bayesian classification models in which one or more variables are imbalanced. Current Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithms for posterior…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2024-01-15 Deborshee Sen , Matthias Sachs , Jianfeng Lu , David Dunson

In this paper, we present a method for computing the marginal likelihood, also known as the model likelihood or Bayesian evidence, from Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC), or other sampled posterior distributions. In order to do this, one…

We propose a new algorithm to do posterior sampling of Kingman's coalescent, based upon the Particle Markov Chain Monte Carlo methodology. Specifically, the algorithm is an instantiation of the Particle Gibbs Sampling method, which…

机器学习 · 统计学 2013-05-07 Yifei Chen , Xiaohui Xie

Many probabilistic models introduce strong dependencies between variables using a latent multivariate Gaussian distribution or a Gaussian process. We present a new Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm for performing inference in models with…

统计计算 · 统计学 2010-03-22 Iain Murray , Ryan Prescott Adams , David J. C. MacKay

The log Gaussian Cox process is a flexible class of point pattern models for capturing spatial and spatio-temporal dependence for point patterns. Model fitting requires approximation of stochastic integrals which is implemented through…

统计计算 · 统计学 2016-12-04 Shinichiro Shirota , Alan E. Gelfand

We introduce Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms based on numerical approximations of piecewise-deterministic Markov processes obtained with the framework of splitting schemes. We present unadjusted as well as adjusted algorithms,…

概率论 · 数学 2025-11-04 Andrea Bertazzi , Paul Dobson , Pierre Monmarché

We propose a Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm based on Gibbs sampling with parallel tempering to solve nonlinear optimal control problems. The algorithm is applicable to nonlinear systems with dynamics that can be approximately…

最优化与控制 · 数学 2024-07-10 João Hespanha , Kerem Camsari

Inferring directed acyclic graphs (DAGs) from data via Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) is computationally challenging in moderate-to-high dimensional settings because their discrete sampling space grows super-exponentially with the number…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2026-04-14 Morris Greenberg , Kieran R Campbell , Radu Craiu

Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) samplers are numerical methods for drawing samples from a given target probability distribution. We discuss one particular MCMC sampler, the MALA-within-Gibbs sampler, from the theoretical and practical…

统计计算 · 统计学 2020-03-19 X. T. Tong , M. Morzfeld , Y. M. Marzouk

Bayesian model selection provides a powerful framework for objectively comparing models directly from observed data, without reference to ground truth data. However, Bayesian model selection requires the computation of the marginal…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2024-01-17 Xiaohao Cai , Jason D. McEwen , Marcelo Pereyra