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This paper proposes a new Sequential Monte Carlo algorithm to perform online estimation in the context of state space models when either the transition density of the latent state or the conditional likelihood of an observation given a…

应用统计 · 统计学 2021-05-10 Alice Martin , Marie-Pierre Etienne , Pierre Gloaguen , Sylvain Le Corff , Jimmy Olsson

Monte Carlo integration is a powerful tool for scientific and statistical computation, but faces significant challenges when the integrand is a multi-modal distribution, even when the mode locations are known. This work introduces novel…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2025-03-11 Fei Ding , Shiyuan He , David E. Jones , Xiao-Li Meng

Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) samplers are powerful tools for Bayesian inference but suffer from high computational costs due to their reliance on large particle ensembles for accurate estimates. We introduce persistent sampling (PS), an…

机器学习 · 统计学 2025-06-24 Minas Karamanis , Uroš Seljak

In this note, we study a concatenation of quasi-Monte Carlo and plain Monte Carlo rules for high-dimensional numerical integration in weighted function spaces. In particular, we consider approximating the integral of periodic functions…

数值分析 · 数学 2022-06-27 Takashi Goda

In Bayesian inference, we seek to compute information about random variables such as moments or quantiles on the basis of {available data} and prior information. When the distribution of random variables is {intractable}, Monte Carlo (MC)…

统计理论 · 数学 2021-04-06 Alec Koppel , Amrit Singh Bedi , Brian M. Sadler , Victor Elvira

In this paper we demonstrate that multi-modal Probability Distribution Functions (PDFs) may be efficiently sampled using an algorithm originally developed for numerical integrations by Monte-Carlo methods. This algorithm can be used to…

计算物理 · 物理学 2009-10-31 K. J. Abraham , L. M. Haines

While generally considered computationally expensive, Uncertainty Quantification using Monte Carlo sampling remains beneficial for applications with uncertainties of high dimension. As an extension of the naive Monte Carlo method, the…

计算工程、金融与科学 · 计算机科学 2026-01-06 Robert Hahn , Sebastian Schöps

Evaluating expectations on an Ising model (or Boltzmann machine) is essential for various applications, including statistical machine learning. However, in general, the evaluation is computationally difficult because it involves intractable…

机器学习 · 统计学 2021-05-19 Muneki Yasuda , Kaiji Sekimoto

We investigate the efficiency of a marginal likelihood estimator where the product of the marginal posterior distributions is used as an importance-sampling function. The approach is generally applicable to multi-block parameter vector…

统计计算 · 统计学 2014-07-08 K. Perrakis , I. Ntzoufras , E. G. Tsionas

We present a consensus Monte Carlo algorithm that scales existing Bayesian nonparametric models for clustering and feature allocation to big data. The algorithm is valid for any prior on random subsets such as partitions and latent feature…

统计计算 · 统计学 2020-02-26 Yang Ni , Yuan Ji , Peter Mueller

Closed-form stochastic filtering equations can be derived in a general setting where probability distributions are replaced by some specific outer measures. In this article, we study how the principles of the sequential Monte Carlo method…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2018-05-07 Jeremie Houssineau , Branko Ristic

Most Markov chain Monte Carlo methods operate in discrete time and are reversible with respect to the target probability. Nevertheless, it is now understood that the use of non-reversible Markov chains can be beneficial in many contexts. In…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2021-02-23 Chris Sherlock , Alexandre H. Thiery

Solving partial differential equations in high dimensions by deep neural network has brought significant attentions in recent years. In many scenarios, the loss function is defined as an integral over a high-dimensional domain. Monte-Carlo…

数值分析 · 数学 2019-11-06 Jingrun Chen , Rui Du , Panchi Li , Liyao Lyu

We investigate in this paper an alternative method to simulation based recursive importance sampling procedure to estimate the optimal change of measure for Monte Carlo simulations. We propose an algorithm which combines (vector and…

概率论 · 数学 2011-09-20 Noufel Frikha , Abass Sagna

The main purpose of this paper is to facilitate the communication between the Analytic, Probabilistic and Algorithmic communities. We present a proof of convergence of the Hamiltonian (Hybrid) Monte Carlo algorithm from the point of view of…

统计计算 · 统计学 2021-02-05 Soumyadip Ghosh , Yingdong Lu , Tomasz Nowicki

We present an unbiased numerical integration algorithm that handles both low-frequency regions and high frequency details of multidimensional integrals. It combines quadrature and Monte Carlo integration, by using a quadrature-base…

图形学 · 计算机科学 2020-08-18 Miguel Crespo , Felix Bernal , Adrian Jarabo , Adolfo Muñoz

Adaptive Monte Carlo methods are recent variance reduction techniques. In this work, we propose a mathematical setting which greatly relaxes the assumptions needed by for the adaptive importance sampling techniques presented by Vazquez-Abad…

计算金融 · 定量金融 2011-04-28 Bernard Lapeyre , Jérôme Lelong

We design and implement a novel algorithm for computing a multilevel Monte Carlo (MLMC) estimator of the cumulative distribution function of a quantity of interest in problems with random input parameters or initial conditions. Our approach…

数值分析 · 数学 2020-08-26 Søren Taverniers , Daniel M. Tartakovsky

Leveraging the coherent exploration of Hamiltonian flow, Hamiltonian Monte Carlo produces computationally efficient Monte Carlo estimators, even with respect to complex and high-dimensional target distributions. When confronted with…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2015-02-06 M. J. Betancourt

Case-deleted analysis is a popular method for evaluating the influence of a subset of cases on inference. The use of Monte Carlo estimation strategies in complicated Bayesian settings leads naturally to the use of importance sampling…

统计计算 · 统计学 2008-09-17 Ilenia Epifani , Steven N. MacEachern , Mario Peruggia