相关论文: Hasard et d\'eterminisme chez Laplace

Machine learning models have undeniably achieved impressive performance across a range of applications. However, their often perceived black-box nature, and lack of transparency in decision-making, have raised concerns about understanding…

Using a hierarchical construction, we develop methods for a wide and flexible class of models by taking a fully parametric approach to generalized linear mixed models with complex covariance dependence. The Laplace approximation is used to…

This paper is devoted to Poincar\'e's work in probability. Though the subject does not represent a large part of the mathematician's achievements, it provides significant insight into the evolution of Poincar\'e's thought on several…

The aim of this article is to promote the use of probabilistic methods in the study of problems in mathematical general relativity. Two new and simple singularity theorems, whose features are different from the classical singularity…

This is a translation of Harald Cram\'er's article, 'On a new limit theorem in probability theory', published in French in 1938 and deriving what is considered by mathematicians to be the first large deviation result. My hope is that this…

We present a semantics for adding uncertainty to conditional logics for default reasoning and belief revision. We are able to treat conditional sentences as statements of conditional probability, and express rules for revision such as "If A…

We generalise Ehrhard and Regnier's Taylor expansion from pure to probabilistic $\lambda$-terms through notions of probabilistic resource terms and explicit Taylor expansion. We prove that the Taylor expansion is adequate when seen as a way…

This position paper reflects on the state-of-the-art in decision-making under uncertainty. A classical assumption is that probabilities can sufficiently capture all uncertainty in a system. In this paper, the focus is on the uncertainty…

Through extended consideration of two wide classes of case studies -- dilute gases and linear systems -- I explore the ways in which assumptions of probability and irreversibility occur in contemporary statistical mechanics, where the…

This paper examines the foundational concept of random variables in probability theory and statistical inference, demonstrating that their mathematical definition requires no reference to randomization or hypothetical repeated sampling. We…

We consider a randomised version of Kleene's realisability interpretation of intuitionistic arithmetic in which computability is replaced with randomised computability with positive probability. In particular, we show that (i) the set of…

Laplace's method is used to approximate intractable integrals in a statistical problems. The relative error rate of the approximation is not worse than $O_p(n^{-1})$. We provide the first statistical lower bounds showing that the $n^{-1}$…

Many statistical models have likelihoods which are intractable: it is impossible or too expensive to compute the likelihood exactly. In such settings, a common approach is to replace the likelihood with an approximation, and proceed with…

This contribution derives from a rather extensive study on the foundations of probability. We start by discussing critically the two main models of the random event in Probability Theroy and cast light over a number of incongruities. We…

Spaces of differential forms over configuration spaces with Poisson measures are constructed. The corresponding Laplacians (of Bochner and de Rham type) on forms and associated semigroups are considered. Their probabilistic interpretation…

We examine the issue of stability of probability in reasoning about complex systems with uncertainty in structure. Normally, propositions are viewed as probability functions on an abstract random graph where it is implicitly assumed that…

Starting with a likelihood or preference order on worlds, we extend it to a likelihood ordering on sets of worlds in a natural way, and examine the resulting logic. Lewis earlier considered such a notion of relative likelihood in the…

Note: Published now as a chapter in "Handbook of the History and Philosophy of Mathematical Practice" (Springer Nature, editor B. Sriraman, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-19071-2_105-1). The application of mathematical probability theory…

This paper presents formulae that can solve various seemingly hopeless philosophical conundrums. We discuss the simulation argument, teleportation, mind-uploading, the rationality of utilitarianism, and the ethics of exploiting artificial…

If quantum mechanics is taken for granted the randomness derived from it may be vacuous or even delusional, yet sufficient for many practical purposes. "Random" quantum events are intimately related to the emergence of both space-time as…