相关论文: Investments in Random Environments

In setting up a stochastic description of the time evolution of a financial index, the challenge consists in devising a model compatible with all stylized facts emerging from the analysis of financial time series and providing a reliable…

A succesful method to describe the asymptotic behavior of a discrete time stochastic process governed by some recursive formula is to relate it to the limit sets of a well chosen mean differential equation. Under an attainability condition,…

Drifts of asset returns are notoriously difficult to model accurately and, yet, trading strategies obtained from portfolio optimization are very sensitive to them. To mitigate this well-known phenomenon we study robust growth-optimization…

This thesis develops exact analytical tools to study strongly correlated stochastic systems, with a focus on extreme value statistics, gap statistics, and full counting statistics in multi-particle processes. A central contribution is the…

Probabilistic model checking can provide formal guarantees on the behavior of stochastic models relating to a wide range of quantitative properties, such as runtime, energy consumption or cost. But decision making is typically with respect…

Organisms and ecological groups accumulate evidence to make decisions. Classic experiments and theoretical studies have explored this process when the correct choice is fixed during each trial. However, we live in a constantly changing…

We consider the problem of dynamic buying and selling of shares from a collection of $N$ stocks with random price fluctuations. To limit investment risk, we place an upper bound on the total number of shares kept at any time. Assuming that…

The recent interest in human dynamics has led researchers to investigate the stochastic processes that explain human behaviour in different contexts. Here we propose a generative model to capture the essential dynamics of survival analysis,…

In risk management it is desirable to grasp the essential statistical features of a time series representing a risk factor. This tutorial aims to introduce a number of different stochastic processes that can help in grasping the essential…

Population dynamics are often subject to random independent changes in the environment. For the two strategy stochastic replicator dynamic, we assume that stochastic changes in the environment replace the payoffs and variance. This is…

Stochastic process discovery is concerned with deriving a model capable of reproducing the stochastic character of observed executions of a given process, stored in a log. This leads to an optimisation problem in which the model's parameter…

We study data-driven learning of robust stochastic control for infinite-horizon systems with potentially continuous state and action spaces. In many managerial settings--supply chains, finance, manufacturing, services, and dynamic…

Many physical phenomena are modeled as stochastic searchers looking for targets. In these models, the probability that a searcher finds a particular target, its so-called hitting probability, is often of considerable interest. In this work…

In this paper we consider a stochastic process that may experience random reset events which bring suddenly the system to the starting value and analyze the relevant statistical magnitudes. We focus our attention on monotonous…

We cast episodic Markov decision process (MDP) planning as Bayesian inference over policies. A policy is treated as the latent variable and is assigned an unnormalized probability of optimality that is monotone in its expected return,…

We revisit the Stochastic Knapsack problem, where a policy-maker chooses an execution order for jobs with fixed values and stochastic running-times, aiming to maximize the value completed by a deadline. Dean et al. (FOCS'04) show that…

An enviromental-random effect over a deterministic population mo\-del, a resource ({\it e.g.}, a fish stock) is introduced. It is assumed that the harvest activity is concentrated at a non predetermined sequence of instants, at which the…

Populations of replicating entities frequently experience sudden or cyclical changes in environment. We explore the implications of this phenomenon via a environmental switching parameter in several common evolutionary dynamics models…

The purpose of this work is to explore the role that arbitrage opportunities play in pricing financial derivatives. We use a non-equilibrium model to set up a stochastic portfolio, and for the random arbitrage return, we choose a stationary…

Stochastic computational models in the form of pure jump processes occur frequently in the description of chemical reactive processes, of ion channel dynamics, and of the spread of infections in populations. For spatially extended models,…