相关论文: A multivariate semiparametric Bayesian spatial mod…

Post-hurricane damage assessment is crucial towards managing resource allocations and executing an effective response. Traditionally, this evaluation is performed through field reconnaissance, which is slow, hazardous, and arduous. Instead,…

We propose a modification of a maximum likelihood procedure for tuning parameter values in models, based upon the comparison of their output to field data. Our methodology, which uses polynomial approximations of the sample space to…

Wave breaking injects turbulence and bubbles into the upper ocean, modulating air-sea exchange of momentum, heat, gases, and sea-spray aerosols. These fluxes depend nonlinearly on sea state but remain poorly represented in coupled…

Air-sea drag governs the momentum transfer between the atmosphere and the ocean, and remains largely unknown in hurricane winds. We revisit the momentum budget and eddy-covariance methods to estimate the surface drag coefficient in the…

Building on recent research for prediction of hurricane trajectories using recurrent neural networks (RNNs), we have developed improved methods and generalized the approach to predict Bayesian intervals in addition to simple point…

One way to predict hurricane numbers would be to predict sea surface temperature, and then predict hurricane numbers as a function of the predicted sea surface temperature. For certain parametric models for sea surface temperature and the…

In this paper, we study the problem of forecasting the next year's number of Atlantic hurricanes, which is relevant in many fields of applications such as land-use planning, hazard mitigation, reinsurance and long-term weather derivative…

Wave runup is a critical factor affecting coastal flooding, shoreline changes, and damage to coastal structures. Climate change is also expected to amplify wave runup's impact on coastal areas. Therefore, fast and accurate wave runup…

Bayesian inference provides a rigorous methodology for estimation and uncertainty quantification of parameters in geophysical forward models. Badlands (basin and landscape dynamics model) is a landscape evolution model that simulates…

During hurricane seasons, emergency managers and other decision makers need accurate and `on-time' information on potential storm surge impacts. Fully dynamical computer models, such as the ADCIRC tide, storm surge, and wind-wave model take…

Near-field tsunami early warning in the Cascadia Subduction Zone is limited by sparse offshore observations. We investigate whether a hypothetical network of 175 ocean-bottom pressure sensors can support real-time Bayesian inference of the…

Identification of regions affected by floods is a crucial piece of information required for better planning and management of post-disaster relief and rescue efforts. Traditionally, remote sensing images are analysed to identify the extent…

Surrogate models are often used to replace costly-to-evaluate complex coastal codes to achieve substantial computational savings. In many of those models, the hydrometeorological forcing conditions (inputs) or flood events (outputs) are…

We are building a hurricane number prediction scheme based on first predicting main development region sea surface temperature (SST), then predicting the number of hurricanes in the Atlantic basin given the SST prediction, and finally…

In this paper, we predict severity of extreme weather events (tropical storms, hurricanes, etc.) using buoy data time series variables such as wind speed and air temperature. The prediction/forecasting method is based on various forecasting…

For civil structures, structural damage due to severe loading events such as earthquakes, or due to long-term environmental degradation, usually occurs in localized areas of a structure. A new sparse Bayesian probabilistic framework for…

Coastal regions in North America face major threats from storm surges caused by hurricanes and nor'easters. Traditional numerical models, while accurate, are computationally expensive, limiting their practicality for real-time predictions.…

This work is motivated by constructing a weather simulator for precipitation. Temperature and humidity are two of the most important driving forces of precipitation, and the strategy is to have a stochastic model for temperature and…

We investigate the ocean wave field under Hurricane SAM (2021). Whilst measurements of waves under Tropical Cyclones (TCs) are rare, an unusually large number of quality in situ and remote measurements are available in that case. First, we…

In many practical applications, evaluating the joint impact of combinations of environmental variables is important for risk management and structural design analysis. When such variables are considered simultaneously, non-stationarity can…