相关论文: Full Bayesian analysis for a class of jump-diffusi…

We conduct an extensive evaluation of price jump tests based on high-frequency financial data. After providing a concise review of multiple alternative tests, we document the size and power of all tests in a range of empirically relevant…

We develop the first exact Bayesian methodology for the problem of inference in discretely observed regime switching diffusions. Switching diffusion models extend ordinary diffusions by allowing for jumps in instantaneous drift and…

Accurate comparisons between theoretical models and experimental data are critical for scientific progress. However, inferred physical model parameters can vary significantly with the chosen physics model, highlighting the importance of…

We look at the distribution of the Bayesian evidence for mock realizations of supernova and baryon acoustic oscillation data. The ratios of Bayesian evidences of different models are often used to perform model selection. The significance…

This work develops asymptotic properties of a class of switching jump diffusion processes. The processes under consideration may be viewed as a number of jump diffusion processes modulated by a random switching mechanism. The underlying…

We review an established Bayesian sampling method called sampling/importance resampling and highlight situations in nuclear theory when it can be particularly useful. To this end we both analyse a toy problem and demonstrate realistic…

Switching dynamical systems provide a powerful, interpretable modeling framework for inference in time-series data in, e.g., the natural sciences or engineering applications. Since many areas, such as biology or discrete-event systems, are…

We consider Bayesian hierarchical models for survival analysis, where the survival times are modeled through an underlying diffusion process which determines the hazard rate. We show how these models can be efficiently treated by means of…

Statistical modeling of multivariate and spatial extreme events has attracted broad attention in various areas of science. Max-stable distributions and processes are the natural class of models for this purpose, and many parametric families…

Regional flood frequency analysis is a convenient way to reduce estimation uncertainty when few data are available at the gauging site. In this work, a model that allows a non-null probability to a regional fixed shape parameter is…

This paper introduces a novel Bayesian approach to detect changes in the variance of a Gaussian sequence model, focusing on quantifying the uncertainty in the change point locations and providing a scalable algorithm for inference. Such a…

Diffusion models have recently driven significant breakthroughs in generative modeling. While state-of-the-art models produce high-quality samples on average, individual samples can still be low quality. Detecting such samples without human…

The measurement of the efficiency of an event selection is always an important part of the analysis of experimental data. The statistical techniques which are needed to determine the efficiency and its uncertainty are reviewed. Frequentist…

Affine jump-diffusions constitute a large class of continuous-time stochastic models that are particularly popular in finance and economics due to their analytical tractability. Methods for parameter estimation for such processes require…

For many infectious disease outbreaks, the at-risk population changes their behavior in response to the outbreak severity, causing the transmission dynamics to change in real-time. Behavioral change is often ignored in epidemic modeling…

We study existence of probability measure valued jump-diffusions described by martingale problems. We develop a simple device that allows us to embed Wasserstein spaces and other similar spaces of probability measures into locally compact…

This article is concerned with the mathematical analysis of a family of adaptive importance sampling algorithms applied to diffusion processes. These methods, referred to as Adaptive Biasing Potential methods, are designed to efficiently…

Change points in real-world systems mark significant regime shifts in system dynamics, possibly triggered by exogenous or endogenous factors. These points define regimes for the time evolution of the system and are crucial for understanding…

These proceedings review the application of Bayesian inference to high momentum transfer probes of the quark--gluon plasma (QGP). Bayesian inference techniques are introduced, highlighting critical components to consider when comparing…

This analysis derives the maximum likelihood estimator and applies Bayesian inference to model geometric Brownian motion, incorporating jump diffusion to account for sudden market shifts. The Bayesian approach is implemented using Markov…