相关论文: Asymptotically minimax Bayes predictive densities

Simultaneous predictive densities for independent Poisson observables are investigated. The observed data and the target variables to be predicted are independently distributed according to different Poisson distributions parametrized by…

Indirect inference estimators (i.e., simulation-based minimum distance estimators) in a parametric model that are based on auxiliary non-parametric maximum likelihood density estimators are shown to be asymptotically normal. If the…

Local asymptotic minimax risk bounds in a locally asymptotically mixture of normal family of distributions have been investigated under asymmetric loss functions and the asymptotic distribution of the optimal estimator that attains the…

The application of Bayesian inference for the purpose of model selection is very popular nowadays. In this framework, models are compared through their marginal likelihoods, or their quotients, called Bayes factors. However, marginal…

It is shown that the first-order term of the asymptotic bias of the posterior mean is removed by a suitable choice of a prior density. In regular statistical models including exponential families, and linear and logistic regression models,…

We consider the fundamental problem of estimating a discrete distribution on a domain of size $K$ with high probability in Kullback-Leibler divergence. We provide upper and lower bounds on the minimax estimation rate, which show that the…

Parametric complexity is a central concept in MDL model selection. In practice it often turns out to be infinite, even for quite simple models such as the Poisson and Geometric families. In such cases, MDL model selection as based on NML…

The use of non parametric hidden Markov models with finite state space is flourishing in practice while few theoretical guarantees are known in this framework. Here, we study asymptotic guarantees for these models in the Bayesian framework.…

A common way of characterizing minimax estimators in point estimation is by moving the problem into the Bayesian estimation domain and finding a least favorable prior distribution. The Bayesian estimator induced by a least favorable prior,…

In data science and machine learning, hierarchical parametric models, such as mixture models, are often used. They contain two kinds of variables: observable variables, which represent the parts of the data that can be directly measured,…

We study the rate of convergence of posterior distributions in density estimation problems for log-densities in periodic Sobolev classes characterized by a smoothness parameter p. The posterior expected density provides a nonparametric…

We investigate the asymptotic normality of the posterior distribution in the discrete setting, when model dimension increases with sample size. We consider a probability mass function $\theta_0$ on $\mathbbm{N}\setminus \{0\}$ and a…

In the Bayes paradigm and for a given loss function, we propose the construction of a new type of posterior distributions, that extends the classical Bayes one, for estimating the law of an $n$-sample. The loss functions we have in mind are…

We study minimax convergence rates of nonparametric density estimation in the Huber contamination model, in which a proportion of the data comes from an unknown outlier distribution. We provide the first results for this problem under a…

We discuss the finite sample theoretical properties of online predictions in non-stationary time series under model misspecification. To analyze the theoretical predictive properties of statistical methods under this setting, we first…

For the important classical problem of inference on a sparse high-dimensional normal mean vector, we propose a novel empirical Bayes model that admits a posterior distribution with desirable properties under mild conditions. In particular,…

In mathematical finance, Levy processes are widely used for their ability to model both continuous variation and abrupt, discontinuous jumps. These jumps are practically relevant, so reliable inference on the feature that controls jump…

Maximum Likelihood Estimators (MLE) has many good properties. For example, the asymptotic variance of MLE solution attains equality of the asymptotic Cram{\'e}r-Rao lower bound (efficiency bound), which is the minimum possible variance for…

We consider a broad class of permutation invariant statistical problems by extending the standard decision theoretic definition to allow also selective inference tasks, where the target is specified only after seeing the data. For any such…

Real-world problems, often couched as machine learning applications, involve quantities of interest that have real-world meaning, independent of any statistical model. To avoid potential model misspecification bias or over-complicating the…