相关论文: Extreme Associated Functions: Optimally Linking Lo…
One of the goals of climate science is to characterize the statistics of extreme and potentially dangerous events in the present and future climate. Extreme events like heat waves, droughts, or floods due to persisting rains are…
The increasing occurrence of extreme weather events since the beginning of the 21st century has led to the development of new methods to attribute extreme events to anthropogenic climate change. The way in which the extreme event is defined…
A method for estimating return values from ensembles of forecasts at advanced lead times is presented. Return values of significant wave height in the North-East Atlantic, the Norwegian Sea and the North Sea are computed from archived…
In Central Europe, the occurrence of different weather regimes (WRs) plays a major role in spatiotemporal temperature and precipitation patterns. In the context of increasingly extreme summers, this study focuses on European summer WRs…
Due to climate change, heatwaves are becoming more frequent and intense, with western Europe experiencing the strongest trends in the Northern Hemisphere mid-latitudes. Part of the temperature trends are caused by circulation changes, which…
Inference on the extremal behaviour of spatial aggregates of precipitation is important for quantifying river flood risk. There are two classes of previous approach, with one failing to ensure self-consistency in inference across different…
Weather extremes produce major impacts on society and ecosystems and are likely to change in likelihood and magnitude with climate change. However, very low probability events are hard to characterize statistically using observations or…
There is increasing evidence that global warming manifests itself in more frequent warm days and that heat waves will become more frequent. Presently, a formal definition of a heat wave is not agreed upon in the literature. To avoid this…
The extratropical meridional energy transport in the atmosphere is fundamentally intermittent in nature, having extremes large enough to affect the net seasonal transport. Here, we investigate how these extreme transports are associated…
Reanalysis products such as the ERA5 reanalysis are commonly used as proxies for observed atmospheric conditions. These products are convenient to use due to their global coverage, the large number of available atmospheric variables and the…
A flexible spatio-temporal model is implemented to analyse extreme extra-tropical cyclones objectively identified over the Atlantic and Europe in 6-hourly re-analyses from 1979-2009. Spatial variation in the extremal properties of the…
Rapid changes in climatic conditions threaten both socioeconomic and ecological systems, as these might not be able to adapt or to migrate at the same pace as that of global warming. In particular, an increase of weather and climate…
Reliable forecasts of quasi-stationary, recurrent, and persistent large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns (weather regimes) are crucial for various socio-economic sectors. Despite steady progress, probabilistic weather regime…
The Mediterranean is strongly affected by Extreme Precipitation Events (EPEs), sometimes leading to negative impacts on society, economy, and the environment. Understanding such natural hazards and their drivers is essential to mitigate…
Using fine-grained, publicly available data, this paper studies the short-term association between environmental factors, i.e., weather and air pollution characteristics, and weekly mortality rates in small geographical regions in Europe.…
Extreme weather events have significant consequences, dominating the impact of climate on society. While high-resolution weather models can forecast many types of extreme events on synoptic timescales, long-term climatological risk…
Planetary and synoptic scale wave-packets represent one important component of the atmospheric large-scale circulation. These dissipative structures are able to rapidly transport eddy kinetic energy, generated locally (e.g. by baroclinic…
We present an operations-ready multi-model ensemble weather forecasting system which uses hybrid data-driven weather prediction models coupled with the European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) ocean model to predict global…
This study presents an advanced framework for tropopause detection and analysis using ERA5 reanalysis data, with particular application to extreme meteorological events affecting Morocco and Southern Europe. The research implements and…
We present a non-linear AI-model designed to reconstruct monthly mean anomalies of the European temperature and precipitation based on the Euro-Atlantic Weather regimes (WR) indices. WR represent recurrent, quasi-stationary, and persistent…